Urmas Reinsalu most popular candidate for prime minister

Urmas Reinsalu.
Urmas Reinsalu. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

Isamaa chairman Urmas Reinsalu is the most popular candidate for prime minister, based on a survey conducted by Norstat Eesti AS on for the think tank Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

People were asked to give their views on prime ministerial candidates, special elections, government coalitions, and the continuation of the current prime minister.

Prime minister's office: 53 percent want to see Urmas Reinsalu as prime minister

Respondents had choice from the leaders of all parliamentary parties. Their preference among the possible candidates for prime minister was divided as follows: 23 percent for Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa), 20 percent for Kaja Kallas (Reform), 16 percent for Martin Helme (EKRE), 10 percent for Mihhail Kõlvart (Center), 3 percent for Lauri Läänemets (SDE), and 1 percent for Lauri Hussar (Eesti 200).

Twenty-seven percent of respondents did not know how to answer.

When respondents had to choose between two candidates, 53 percent preferred to see Urmas Reinsalu as prime minister, as opposed to 29 percent who preferred Kaja Kallas. When compared with Martin Helme, 61 percent of respondents preferred Urmas Reinsalu, and 21 percent preferred Martin Helme. In a comparison between Kaja Kallas and Martin Helme, 42 percent of respondents prefer Kaja Kallas and 37 percent prefer Martin Helme.

68 percent support the resignation of Kaja Kallas

In addition, the question was asked, "Do you think Kaja Kallas should resign as prime minister?" 25 percent said "no" or "rather no", 68 percent said "rather yes" or "yes," and 7 percent said "don't know."

In terms of party preference, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 supporters make up the majority of respondents who do not think the prime minister should resign. Among the Social Democrats and the opposition parties, the majority of respondents support the resignation of the current prime minister. The same question has been asked a total of five times since the end of August, and the proportion of people supporting the prime minister's resignation has remained relatively stable over this period.

Extraordinary elections: 55 percent support an extraordinary election

Respondents were also asked, "Do you think Estonia should hold special elections?" – 38 percent answered "no" or "rather no", 55 percent said "rather yes" or "yes," and seven percent said "I don't know." Supporters of the opposition parties, and not the coalition parties, would be in favor of special elections.

The same question was asked in a poll conducted on October 11, when 51 percent of respondents thought that Estonia should hold special elections.

Coalition partners: 21 percent of respondents would like to see a coalition of EKRE, Center, Eesti 200 and Isamaa.

Respondents were also asked which coalition government they preferred. The choice could be made on the basis of the most likely coalitions based on the distribution of seats in the current parliament, i.e., coalitions with more than 51 seats.

Respondents' preference between the coalitions was as follows: 21 percent for the EKRE-Center-Eesti 200-Isamaa; 18 percent for Reform-Eesti 200-SDE; 15 percent for Reform-SDE-Isamaa; 10 percent for the EKRE-Center-Eesti 200-SDE; 8 percent for Reform-Eesti 200-Isamaa; 3 percent for Reform-EKRE.

Twenty-seven percent of respondents did not know how to answer.

Nortstat noted that the most remarkable thing about this topic is that the most popular coalition option is the only one without the Reform Party. This is the most popular coalition option among supporters of the opposition parties, while supporters of the coalition parties mostly prefer the current coalition.

The Norstat survey was carried out on November 8 and 9 in an online environment among Estonian citizens aged 18 and over, with a total of 1001 respondents.


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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Kristina Kersa

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