The inventory showed that although Estonia's greenhouse gas emissions increased between 2020 and 2022, the total level of 14.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent is historically quite low.

Energy accounts for the largest share of Estonia's greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 at 65 percent, transport for 19 percent and agriculture for 11 percent.

"Looking at the whole greenhouse gas mix, changes in the energy and transport sectors have the biggest impact on the big picture," said Kristi Klaas, deputy secretary general for Green Transition at the Ministry of Climate.

The inventory is based on data from 2022 when oil shale plant usage was above average to combat high electricity prices. In 2023, their capacity fell significantly.

"In 2023, the market price of our CO2 quota was less than €300 million, down from €500 million to €300 million. This is a very significant change. And we also produced twice as much electricity - 5.1 TWh in 2022 and 2.2 TWh in 2023," said Andres Vainola, board member of Eesti Energia.

So, in principle, the reduction in oil shale electricity has already eliminated a large share of Estonia's greenhouse gas emissions.

Klaas confirmed this finding: "This is true. It is the changes in the energy sector that will lead to very significant emission reductions in 2030 and 2035."

In addition, greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry were recalculated under a new methodology. While there was initially speculation that Estonia could be hit with a huge fine without a sharp reduction in deforestation, there is now no such risk.

Allan Sims, senior researcher of forestry modeling and data at the Estonian University of Life Sciences, said: "With today's logging volumes, such a fine may not even occur. Currently, yes, in the next decade, 10 to 11 million cubic meters as a logging volume is quite binding."

The Environment Agency's Eve Suursild, the chief specialist at the forestry department, said it would be reasonable to continue with the current felling volumes and cut down the forest that has become ripe for felling.

"If we leave the mature forest uncut, we will have a predominance of old forest, older forest, which is not so good at storing carbon. As we know, it is the young and middle-aged forests that store carbon best, where the increment is high," said Suursild.

At the same time, in the long term, the forest in Estonia is getting younger on average, which inevitably leads to a decrease in the volume of felling.

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