Center has already had to half its management and labor costs in recent years.

Should Monday's circuit court ruling on the Porto Franco case remain in effect, the Center Party will have to pay the state one million euros in fines.

This is approximately the same figure the party expended on all campaign, labor, and management expenses in the quarter ahead of last year's elections.

Andre Hanimägi, formerly Center's secretary general but who defected to the Social Democrats (SDE) earlier this year, told ERR that his ex-party could meet the fine if it was presented with a schedule of payments, rather than being liable for it in one fell swoop.

Hanimägi told ERR's radio news: "The question arises, however, of how to keep the party alive and kicking, how to organize events, how to conduct campaigns.

This is indeed a moot point, according to Hanimägi.

"In essence, this could mean the end of the Center Party, at least in its current guise and strength."

Management and labor costs have been cut by half a million

Paying off debts and fines is not a new and unfamiliar challenge for the Center Party, however. Former minister Jaak Aab, another senior Center defector to SDE, recalled that over a five-year period, the Center Party when led by Jüri Ratas had to pay out a total of three million euros, including a single sum of nearly €850,000 to marketing firm Midfield LLC (whose work on a Center campaign was adjudged to have constituted an illegal donation – ed.).

The party's expenses were reviewed at the beginning of 2021, according to Ratas, yet another departure from Center, this time to Isamaa. This "review" included firing some of the party faithful.

"The party laid off several dozen dedicated people who worked daily for the party," Ratas told ERR.

While the Center Party's management and labor costs amounted to €964,000 in 2019, four years later, those expenses came to less than half that, at €460,000.

Ratas said: "By the end of last year, there were four-and-a-half positions left at the party's office."

The management expenses incurred by the Center Party include maintaining its central office in Tallinn as well as its regional offices. "Giving up the office space, laying off all those people would naturally lead to tens of thousands of euros being saved every month. But then the question always arises as to how and when the party itself continues to function," Ratas added.

Andre Hanimägi also referenced Center's sacrificing of regional offices and office space on Narva mnt as potential areas for cuts. The Center Party's weekly newsletter, Kesknädal, could also be wound up, once again, he added.

Ultimately Hanimägi came to the same conclusion as Ratas, however. "If you make all these cuts, how strong is the party at the end of the day?"

Politicians tasked with coming up with budget campaign slogans

More than is the case with management and labor, the Center Party needs money for its campaign. Jüri Ratas recalled that Center went into the October 2021 local elections (Center's bedrock support areas include Tallinn and Ida-Viru County, and also some parts of Southeast Estonia – ed.) with a much leaner campaign strategy than before. The same was true for the 2023 Riigikogu elections, too.

According to Hangimägi, the austerity campaign meant that all work, except for technical media planning, was done in-house.

"All such things, be they slogans or the general look and feel of the party's campaign, and anything else, things which usually entail outside consultants being involved, were conducted by a very small cadre of the party's members," Hanimägi said.

Beyond quality, a smaller budget negatively affects the visibility of a campaign. Large billboards, TV ads, and, increasingly, online space, are all equally expensive.

Hanimägi said: "I think everyone who observed the last Riigikogu elections could probably tell apart those parties that seemed to have more funds."

State support for Center fell significantly

Aab, Hanimägi, and Ratas all noted that a smaller budget could be compensated to some extent by more vigorous canvassing.

More so-called tent campaigns (often literally utilizing tents) and meeting the people in the street (door-to-door canvassing is less common, though not unheard of – ed.), doling out sweets, pens and other goodies etc., are the main methods here.

However, Aab said that even then, something was still amiss.

"Party results are ultimately measured on the various polling days. Here, the role of funding is key," he said.

The Center Party is soon facing the European Parliament election campaign, where generally not much money is invested.

Andre Hanimägi suggested that the biggest challenge next to face the Center Party will be the 2025 local elections.

He said: "It is very hard to imagine that even by making payment according to a schedule, it would be possible to set aside any campaign money for those elections," Hanimägi said. "And when there's no money, it can be assumed that the result will be very weak. So that will also impact the 2027 parliamentary elections."

When it comes to elections, while success tends to breed success, including in the financial sphere, the reverse is also the case.

During the previous parliamentary term (2019-2023), the Center Party took in €1,320,000 in state support (due to all political parties who poll above 2 percent – so for instance Eesti 200 qualified for this from 2019 despite not winning any seats that year, a feat which Parempoolsed repeated last year, having been founded in 2022 – ed.).

For Center, after losing ten mandates, the support dropped to €820,000 for the year (as support is doled out in proportion to representation). This means the party has far less money to pay off the potential fine than it did both on previous debts, and if the fine had been issued ahead of the 2023 election (since it pertains to a scandal from early 2021).

Hanimägi: Chance of six-figure donations is slim

Even in tough times, parties hope for more diligent payment of membership fees, but ultimately, that is of little help given that parties can't charge a king's ransom for membership, and many members lapse on their payments too.

Last year, for instance, the Center Party collected less than €40,000 in membership fees.

While it took in about €580,000 in donations, more than half of that was from a single €300,000 donation from Bigbank owner Parvel Pruunsild, who had donated to several parties in any case.

Center as it happened chose last summer to return that donation, due to Pruunsild being subject to an investigation over the sale of the former Estonian National Museum (ERM) building in Tartu.

Getting in donations is difficult for all parties, Hanimägi noted. "Whether there's a worldview donor willing to give five- and six-figure numbers is hard to forecast. But chances are, it's very slim."

If the party has no money, a greater burden falls on the party members. Tanel Kiik said he has even contributed thousands of euros to the campaign. Other former Center Party members also recalled paying a significant portion of their campaign expenses themselves.

"At both local and parliamentary elections, the Center Party was the only party according to ERJK data where candidates' own contributions reached hundreds of thousands of euros," Hanimägi said.

Center Party still has several options

Jaak Aab noted that basing politics on personal funds can end up being unsustainable at some point. "Especially in local elections; how much can ordinary people really contribute?" Aab pondered.

"Plus how much do they want to invest their personal money to improve the party's election result. That's a difficult question to answer. Our people were diligent and contributed much, but there's also a limit to their patience," he added.

Hanimägi said that greater personal contributions from candidates also

caused a lot of dissatisfaction within the Center Party and had become a case of not getting fooled again.

"Back then, there was still some hope that things would get better. I'm not sure that now, for the third or fourth election in a row, candidates and members are willing to contribute as much," Hanimägi said.

However, these assessments of former leading Center Party members don't mean all is lost for the party.

For a start, the Supreme Court has not yet had its say. Second, a major political seismic shift could transform the party ratings without any campaigning needed. And third, a campaign can be run on borrowed money, in the hopes that a solid election result will bring state and donor funds back to the party coffers later.

Hanimägi, however, deemed this last option unlikely. First, the granting of loans usually requires more significant collateral than vague hopes.

Also, the Center Party has learned from tactics similar to those used by Edgar Savisaar, its founder, which may have worked in the short-term, but could be said not to have in the longer term.

"At one point, what went around came back round, but even more had to be paid than it was worth. So, I don't see that as a feasible option anymore," Hanimägi said.

In fact, Center could be seen as the personification of Edgar Savisaar, former long-term Tallinn mayor, who passed away at the end of 2022.

A long-running corruption trial involving some of his associates, as well as the man himself, became increasingly complex for the courts (not to mention the English-language media) to keep abreast of, and in any case, was wound up due to his ill health after going all the way to the Supreme Court.

Current Mayor of Tallinn, and Center Party chair, Mihhail Kõlvart, told ETV program "Terevisioon" on Tuesday that if the Center Party were to be found guilty of the influence peddling it is charged with and did indeed have to stump up the money to pay off a fine of one million euros, while this would represent a painful blow to the party, it would not be an existential threat.

Kõlvart reiterated that the Center Party intends to challenge the second-tier circuit court's decision at the Supreme Court because clarity is needed on this issue not just for the Center Party but more broadly. Final conclusions can be made when it becomes clear whether the Supreme Court will take up the case or not. If the case is not taken up, the district court's guilty verdict will be enforced.

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