Balticconnector rupture led to lower gas prices in Estonia, higher in Finland

Last October's rupture of the Balticconnector undersea gas pipeline which runs between Estonia and Finland led to a fall in natural gas prices in the first of these countries, yet a rise in the second, ie. in Finland.
The impact on the financial results of market leader Eesti Gaas, which operates in Finland too, has not yet been disclosed, however.
Marko Allikson, board member and energy trader at Baltic Energy Partners, told ERR on Tuesday: "The rupture of the Balticconnector gas pipeline has caused a noticeable rise in natural gas prices in Finland and a price drop in the Estonia-Latvia market."
"Since the incident, the market price of natural gas in Finland has been dependent essentially on the weather and the arrival of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) vessels, not on the developments in the European gas spot markets, due to the lack of a physical connection [with Europe]," Allikson added.
Margus Kaasik, the CEO of Eesti Gaas, concurred with Allikson's assessment, noting in a written comment that: "Natural gas that was earmarked for relocation from the Latvian gas storage facility (at Inčukalns) to Finland had to be sold by market participants, primarily on the Baltic and/or Polish markets, after the rupture of Balticconnector."
This meant that there was indeed some oversupply and price reduction in the Baltic area. However, the main reason for the price fall has been the drop in Western European prices, as our region's prices are directly connected to those," Kaasik went on.
Allikson meanwhile said: "Natural gas prices on the Estonian and Latvian markets have essentially been following the movements of the Western European gas spot markets, and have been the lowest in the region, below those seen in the Lithuanian and Polish gas markets. The reason for this is that the region is home to the Inčukalns gas storage facility, where natural gas planned for Finland, which had not been used during the relatively mild winter, was stored."
Inčukalns is a subterranean storage facility near Riga.

The rise in natural gas prices in Finland was also noted in the annual summary of Gasum, Finland's state-owned energy company, which announced: "The Finnish gas market was affected by the rupture of the Balticconnector pipeline running under the Baltic Sea between Finland and Estonia, and the resulting cessation of gas flow."
"Finnish gas prices reacted strongly, and local prices traded at a level €20 per MWh higher than European or Baltic gas prices. Since the pipeline damage, Finland's gas supplies have depended entirely on LNG consignments, mainly via the floating storage terminal located at Inkoo."
Finland's gas supply became dependent on the Inkoo LNG terminal
Following the outage with Balticconnector, Eesti Gaas had to significantly revise its supply plans, Margus Kaasik of Eesti Gaas went on.
Via a spokesperson, Kaasik said: "Under normal circumstances, the winter supply for Finnish customers would have predominantly derived from the Latvian storage facility, but now additional gas shipments had to be ordered to the Inkoo terminal."
"We took part in the terminal's supply window auction, winning half of these contracts, and brought in one shipment of LNG per month. We were up to the task and ensured precise gas deliveries to Finnish consumers and industrial companies, in real-time consumption mode," Kaasik continued in his statement.

Kaasik also pointed to the importance of LNG container ships which are ice-rated.
"As a result of the Balticconnector damage, it has been necessary to bring significantly more LNG to Finland's Inkoo terminal over the winter than in a normal situation. Winter ice conditions complicate the delivery of LNG to Inkoo, necessitating the supplier to have an ice-rated ship. However, such vessels are significantly few and far between, and as a result, during the Balticconnector down time, the pool of LNG suppliers available for the Inkoo terminal has been more limited and deliveries more expensive than during the ice-free periods of the year."
Allikson also noted the sudden spike in the importance of LNG trade and the Inkoo terminal due to the disruption of the Estonia-Finland gas connection in broader terms.

As to how the Balticconnector incident could affect the financial results at Eesti Gaas, Allikson said this is impossible to assess from the outside, as much depends on the company's contracts and risk policies.
Kaasik said that Eesti Gaas will be providing more detailed information in its annual report, which will be published by the end of June.
He also referred to the unaudited interim report from the fourth quarter of last year, and the year's report itself, from Eesti Gaas' parent company, Infortar.
Infortar, listed on the Tallinn Stock Exchange, released this at the end of February.
Kaasik said: "A growth in sales volumes is behind Eesti Gaas' good financial results. As of today, we operate in five markets, from Finland to Poland, and have become the largest private capital energy company in the Finland-Baltic region. Last year, we doubled our business volumes and sold a total of 15.9 TWh of gas and electricity. Our market share of gas sales in the Finland-Baltic region grew to 25 percent. Whereas in 2022 we brought in five LNG vessels, in 2023 we brought in 18 of these. One-third of our region's natural gas supply comes via Eesti Gaas."
The Balticconnector pipeline was disrupted on October 8, after it was reportedly damaged by a trailing anchor from the Hong Kong-registered vessel Newnew Polar Bear, en route from Kaliningrad to St. Petersburg. The incident occurred in Finland's economic maritime zone. At the same time, a cable connecting Estonia and Finland, as well as another telecoms cable located about 50 kilometers west of Hiiumaa and connecting Estonia and Sweden, was damaged a day earlier. In both cases, the same vessel is considered culpable.

According to data from Argus Media, which compiles and mediates market data, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania consumed a total of 40 TWh of natural gas last year, of which Lithuania consumed nearly 15 TWh, Finland 13.4 TWh, Latvia 8.2 TWh, and Estonia 3.4 TWh.
The natural gas consumption of all four countries fell sharply in 2022 due to restrictions imposed on Russian gas exports following its invasion of Ukraine.
--
Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!
Editor: Andrew Whyte