Tallinn coalition talks that started Sunday bring to mind the problem of the man who had to transport a wolf, a goat and a head of cabbage over the river one at a time.

For Isamaa, the problem is ruling in Tallinn with the very people it has been indiscriminately and tirelessly railing against on the national level for the past year. This could impact the party's image and currently bloated rating heading into the European Parliament elections.

The ruling parties are willing to swallow the insult and find working with Isamaa on the local level a feasible prospect. To try and save face, Isamaa attempted to put the nationwide political hot topics of taxes and revoking the voting rights of non-citizens on the Tallinn agenda. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) did not mince words when she described it as blackmail.

Alas, it seems that Isamaa picked a bad time to go down that path as it will need the ruling coalition's votes at Thursday's Board of the Riigikogu elections.

The problem is that Isamaa only has 11 votes with which to make sure Jüri Ratas (who recently quit Center in favor of Isamaa – ed.) gets to keep his post of Riigikogu vice president. The opposing candidate of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) can count on EKRE's 17 votes and likely also the votes of Center's six remaining MPs. I dare speculate that it is this deal that motivated EKRE not to join the no-confidence motion at the Tallinn City Council.

Since Ratas likely has the backing of independents Kersti Sarapuu and Enn Eesmaa, he still needs at least another 11 votes. Should Isamaa fail to drop its political blackmail act (at the Tallinn talks – ed.) by Wednesday, I see little reason for the three nationwide coalition partners to gift them those votes (in the Riigikogu – ed.). This would constitute a crack in the yet-to-be-born alliance and the first step toward closer cooperation in Tallinn's new opposition.

But even if this hurdle can be overcome, the new coalition in Tallinn is looking at a balance of powers of 39:39 + Igor Gräzin. This, of course, makes it impossible to govern either in the short or long perspective, whereas hoping that aspiring mayoral candidates Pärtel-Peeter Pere (Reform) or Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE) would give up their Riigikogu mandates stepping on such thin ice would probably be in vain.

So the shift in power in Tallinn is built on the hopes of attracting at least another two or three Center Party delegates. This hope, as spread by the Reform Party and Isamaa, was the real reason why the Social Democrats gave up their coalition with the Center Party – fear of finding themselves in the opposition with Center instead.

As a remark, pointing to Porto Franco should be left to those who have forgotten that official suspicions being brought in the case did not stop Reform and SDE from forming a coalition with Center (on the national level – ed.) in 2021, nor does it currently seem to be discouraging anyone from working with then Center Party leader Jüri Ratas who has since changed his colors.

Making the whole situation especially unseemly is that ousting Center was supposed to put an end to Savisaarian political culture in the capital. As we know, Edgar Savisaar was a grandmaster when it came to convincing or bribing people to change sides. Now, all parties to the new and supposedly clean coalition are forced to resort to the same kind of tactics.

Isamaa's call to strip non-citizens of their [local elections] voting rights at these talks has finally made it redundant to try and dress the topic up in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, as suggestions to change the makeup of Tallinn's electorate in a way to perpetuate Isamaa's power therein have become quite candid.

Any even the least bit democratic society would find scandalous attempts by forces that prevailed at elections to amend voting laws in an attempt to perpetuate their power, while wishing to alter the structure of the electorate by taking away one part's right to vote is, frankly, unprecedented.

According to the constitution, only Estonian citizens can hold elected office, also on the local level. The desire to strip non-citizens of their right to participate in electing these citizens in no uncertain terms amounts to splitting the latter in two – those who are allowed to execute that power and those who are not – loyal and disloyal.

Strangely enough, people seem to have forgotten that a quarter century ago, when Tallinn voters included far more non-citizens, Jüri Mõis and later Tõnis Palts were elected mayors. Taavi Aas and Jüri Rõivas have also held that office, whereas Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) was recently overthrown with help from a council elected by those very "disloyal" voters.

Therefore, the situation is far from being hopeless enough to warrant amending the constitution and declaring 170,000 fellow countrymen and the council delegates they've elected a threat to national security to enforce "pro-Estonianness" in the capital.

Isamaa, that is to say Urmas Reinsalu, knows that the Social Democrats cannot make "a deal" without losing face. Therefore, the question of Isamaa's true purpose behind all this noise is raised.

I believe they want to oust the Social Democrats from the incoming coalition and replace them with EKRE, the leaders of which have already suggested that by replacing Mihhail Kõlvart, whose father is Estonian and whose mother is Korean, with Jevgeni Ossinovski, whose closest Estonian ancestor is his grandfather, cannot be painted as a triumph of Estonianess whatever way you slice it, which is what Isamaa is trying to do.

The problem with this plan is that such a coalition would find itself a 37:42 minority, which would require far more Centrists to change sides. Next, it may well turn out that none of the parties in question have any idea how to run the capital (having been largely removed from it for nearly 19 years – ed.), which may painfully reflect in the 2025 local elections results, if not sooner.

In any case, it will be interesting to see Isamaa maneuver its way out of the trap it has laid for itself and whether a man capable of transporting the wolf, goat and cabbage to the other bank all in one piece can be found.

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