Speaking at the general assembly of the Academy of Sciences on Wednesday, the general said there is no immediate threat to Estonia.

But when the threat increases, the state increases defense readiness – and that means mobilization.

Citing Ukraine as an example, he said Estonia has enough time to prepare if the threat level rises. "Whether to prepare is not a question of knowledge, but of decisions," Herem said.

However, if Estonia mobilized 43,000 soldiers, it would cost nearly €2 million a day.

"It's not a lot of money compared to what these people no longer produce. The Finns say that if they mobilize 250,000, the country could be bankrupt in a month," the general told the audience.

NATO troops already here

Herem reiterated that Estonia does not need to wait for NATO forces to arrive as they are already here. "Today's system is such that NATO is here and not going anywhere – it gets bigger when there are danger signs," he said.

The alliance also has specific battle plans to defend Estonia. "There are specific people who go to Estonia, train and are ready to react very quickly," the general said.

But, in the future, Russia will not need three years – the time frame suggested by various intelligence agencies across Europe – to prepare for an attack on another country, he said.

"Today's war machine in Russia works so well that if it wants to do just a one-month military operation against Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, to create very ugly images here, knowing that it would lose militarily – it doesn't need any special preparation for that," Herem said.

Additionally, Russia may not aim to win a war, but to create exploitable tensions.

"The result of this [Russian attack] could be a military victory for us – 20,000 dead on their side and only a thousand on ours. But our military victory could be ugly enough that most of you would say that the commander of the defense forces was stupid, that the politicians did not allocate enough money – we would quarrel among ourselves and we would also blame the Latvians and the Germans for being too slow. This may be a Russian objective that Russia will exploit later," Herem said.

Russia is preparing for war – there is no doubt about it

The EDF chief said, that despite NATO's deterrence plans, Russia is preparing for war.

"I have seen NATO plans. There is no such plan where the blue arrows would cross the Russian border before its aggression," said Herem, clarifying that NATO would not seek to start a war against Russia.

He said Moscow is using sabotage tactics creating tensions in its areas of interest.

"More than a month ago, a dozen saboteurs, hired and instructed by the Russian special services to carry out acts here that could inflame tensions in society, were detained by the Internal Security Services," he said.

The head of the defense forces listed the attack on the Minister of Interior Lauri Läänemets' car or, for example, the burning down of a warehouse as acts of sabotage that Russia could later blame on someone else.

"It's not only [happening] in Estonia, but also in the other Baltic countries and Poland," he added.

Conflicts in other parts of the world encourage Russian aggression

Herem said if Russia withdraws from Ukraine and another headline-grabbing conflict elsewhere in the world takes its place, then a window of opportunity for Russia to carry out new aggression elsewhere opens up.

"Who the hell says Putin, Jinping and that guy in Korea aren't working things out with each other?" he asked.

Estonia now has weapons – HIMARS and Blue Spear anti-ship missiles – with a range of up to 300 kilometers and has also acquired other systems with shorter ranges, Herem said. Acquiring as much ammunition as possible has also been a priority since 2022, he added.

"We won't keep Russia out with nice words or cyber power. In the case of Ukraine, there is only one tool – lethal force," the general said.

Baltic Sea will be closed from the first moment of aggression

Estonia, Finland and Sweden can take control of the Baltic Sea from the first moment of aggression by cutting off supply routes, he said: "If we close the Baltic Sea, how are you [Russia] going to get potatoes from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad?"

Enemy units entering Estonian territory will be stopped by infantry or tanks.

"But all those who want to influence us from a distance of 50 or 100 kilometers, as is happening today in Ukraine, and for which they have no remedy – we will crush them! We will destroy them not in Rakvere or Narva, but in Ivangorod, Petseri or somewhere else there [in Russia]," said Herem.

"If there are rumors that we have bought things from the Americans or Israel that we are not allowed to send across the border, it is not true. This has been clear from the beginning," the general said.

Herem is absolutely certain Estonia would win militarily against Russia, but the victory could be ugly.

Civilian defense, such as marking up and preparing shelters, is also extremely important, he said.

Air defense not 100 percent effective

Herem said Russia's S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles travel at such a speed that they have not been intercepted by any air defense system yet.

"The glide bombs are launched from a distance of 60 kilometers from the target. The only way to counter them is to destroy the enemy's infrastructure," he told the audience.

Herem said mid-range air defense is too expensive against drones. Instead, heavy machine guns and cannons must be developed, and modernized with thermal sights, acoustic sensors and computing systems.

"The current situation is not bad – we should not be afraid of a coming war, but of the fact that we are not preparing for it," Herem concluded.

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