According to Kärt Jaarma, chief specialist of the animal health and welfare department at the Agriculture and Food Board (PTA), the situation in Europe is currently relatively calm compared to America. Across the Atlantic, the virus strain has already caused the mass death of sea birds and marine mammals.

For instance, tens of thousands of dead seals and sea lions have been found along the coastlines of South America. In some seal colonies, mortality rates reach up to 95 percent. In the U.S., H5N1 has breached animal and bird farms. Traces of the virus have also been found in pasteurized cow's milk.

"What is happening in America is indeed quite worrying. Europe is unusually calm at the moment; we'll see if it stays that way. Actually, there are even fewer outbreaks now than at the same time last year," Jaarma told ERR.

According to her, bird flu is also present in Europe, but most cases were in the years 2021 and 2022. "Last year, Europe was hit by seagulls dying in troves, which reached the shores of the Baltic Sea," she noted. As a result, the virus spread last year to fur farms in Finland.

Jaarma explains that the H5N1 strain of bird flu is highly pathogenic and easily jumps from one species to another. The strain began spreading globally in 2020, and since then, over 90 million domestic birds have been culled in the U.S. alone. The virus also spreads rapidly among domestic cattle, although symptoms in these animals are relatively mild.

"Although cattle do not die from the infection, they exhibit milder symptoms, such as reduced milk production, decreased appetite, fever and fatigue," the specialist observed.

According to the European Food Safety Authority, between December 2 last year and March 15 this year, 227 domestic birds and 414 wild birds were found infected in various European countries. In the Baltic Sea region, the strain primarily spreads among wild birds. "A couple of weeks ago, Latvia reported that it found the H5N1 strain in a dead graylag goose found near Mazsalaca in the northern part of the country," she said.

Spread between humans a possibility

Recently, an individual in the USA who works with cattle was diagnosed with the H5N1 strain, although their symptoms were mild, limited to conjunctivitis. "This is currently a major topic of discussion because there is fear of a pandemic. Bird flu is considered a pandemic-risk virus, and it is mutating very quickly. No one knows in which direction it will evolve," noted expert Kärt Jaarma.

"At some point, H5N1 might begin to prefer mammals. If enough people become infected, there might eventually emerge a version that can also be transmitted from person to person," she added. However, she believes there is no need for excessive worry. The strain has been circulating for years, but it still does not transmit between humans.

"We've had so many outbreaks among domestic birds. We've seen significant wild bird mortality, fur animal infections in Finland, cat infections in Poland, but people have not been symptomatically infected. Thus, the likelihood of infection is still considered low," emphasized Jaarma.

Currently, the PTA assesses the probability of infection for people who have come into contact with sick animals or birds as ranging from medium to low. "Considering how many people have already been exposed to this strain and the lack of symptomatic cases, it's actually gone rather well," added the animal health specialist.

Although the situation appears calm in Europe at the moment, the PTA advises reporting any large numbers of dead wild birds. On farms, the agency recommends keeping different animal species separate, and domestic cats should stay indoors. "The H5N1 strain is currently not particularly detected in the Baltic Sea region. It has remained calm, but you can never be sure. The virus is highly mutable and it exists in our environment," said Jaarma.

"We have also taken samples this year, but fortunately, we have not detected the virus in wild birds. Last year, we began investigating cats as well. Now, bird flu can no longer be ruled out in pets, and if there are any suspicious symptoms, it is definitely advisable to visit a veterinarian. We have sent out notification letters to veterinarians to contact us," the specialist confirmed.

Vaccine possible, while a crisis could create production bottlenecks

Margus Varjak, an associate professor of virology at the University of Tartu, mentioned that rapid mutation is characteristic of influenza viruses, which allows them to adapt well to various environments. "Virus strains are constantly evolving and never remain static. Currently, we find ourselves in a situation where H5N1 is present on nearly all continents and has spread rapidly worldwide," stated the virologist.

"The current H5N1 strain began spreading in 2020, but it has recently come under greater scrutiny because last year it started infecting a large number of seals. In certain seal populations, the mortality rate is nearly 100 percent," he noted.

According to Varjak, the virus could potentially jump to humans primarily because our diets include a variety of bird species: chickens, ducks, turkeys, geese and more. "Bird farms have many birds in close proximity. Next to a bird farm, there might be a pig farm, and other animals nearby. This creates dense populations where the virus can evolve effectively," Varjak explained.

He mentioned that the H5N1 strain is currently on the watchlist of various health organizations, but there is not yet significant concern about it spreading between humans. "Somewhat unexpectedly, it was found in cow's milk in the USA. This really shows that the virus is highly mutable and adapts quickly," acknowledged Varjak.

An analysis of the virus strain's genome published last week suggested that it might have started infecting U.S. livestock as early as January or even last September. The virus likely acquired this capability just once. However, it is still unknown exactly how the virus was transmitted, but it is likely that animal feed was contaminated with wild bird droppings or other secretions.

"Fortunately, we have the capacity to create vaccines if necessary. H5N1 is not currently in the autumn immunization plan, but if the need arises, the technology is available. If necessary, both humans and animals can be vaccinated," Varjak said.

However, Varjak noted that having the capability to produce vaccines does not mean that the situation cannot rapidly deteriorate. "Production capability is still just that. It should also be noted that there are certain antiviral compounds available that an infected person can take," the virologist pointed out.

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