Experts: Weather, Estlink 2 issue behind costly Estonian electricity

While electricity prices are generally lower in the summer, this year the expected price fall has not materialized.
This is, experts say, the result of a fault leading to the Estlink 2 submarine cable having been out of action since early on this year, plus also the recent calm winds, which mean turbines in the region are not working much of the time.
If the wind picks up, electricity should become cheaper, though even then Estonia will not escape high peak prices, the experts say.
Einari Kisel, supervisory board member at state-owned generator Eesti Energia, told ERR that there are several factors contributing to the current high price of electricity.
Kisel said: "First, if we look at the weather, there isn't much wind, so wind farms are not generating much."
"Taking into consideration that Finland's cheaper electricity is mainly based on wind power, and that this price largely is passed over to Estonia, the current lack of wind means more expensive generation sources, primarily natural gas, are being utilized instead," Kisel went on.
Nevertheless, electricity prices in Finland are currently significantly cheaper than those seen in Estonia.
On Wednesday this week, the average price on the Nordpool market stood at €114.02 per MWh in Estonia, more than five times the rate seen in Finland, at €22.45 per Mwh.
Kisel noted that last year, Estlink 2 was fully operational, allowing for more electricity to be imported to Estonia and from Finland.
Currently and as a result of the Estlink 2 failure, not as much electricity is arriving from Finland and the other Nordic countries, as noted, at a time of low wind speeds.
"Both Lithuanian and Estonian wind turbines are not producing sufficient volumes, and since the electricity [currently in use] is mainly produced from natural gas generation in Lithuania, it is this which is setting the price," X went on.
Kalvi Nõu, head of energy trading at Alexela, also highlighted the poor wind conditions in recent weeks twinned with the outage of the Estlink 2 connection between Estonia and Finland.
"Ongoing maintenance work also significantly affects the peak prices during the day," he said.
Nõu noted that, for instance, transmission capacities between Sweden and Finland are limited until June 23, while maintenance on the Olkiluoto 1 nuclear reactor will continue to June 16.
Additionally, one block of the Eesti Elektrijaam in Auvere, Ida-Viru County, is undergoing maintenance for the next month, further curbing supply.
As for the much lower prices seen in Finland, Nõu said: "Finland's electricity price is lower compared with Estonia's primarily on days with fair wind conditions in Finland."
"We are also likely to see lower prices in Finland after the completion of major maintenance works there. The availability of nuclear and wind energy also helps keep Finnish electricity prices low."
Earlier, Armen Kasparov, director of energy trading and portfolio management at Eesti Energia, had predicted in mid-May that although electricity prices usually fall in the summer, this year, prices in the Baltics could drop even more than expected, due to record-high renewable energy production, stable consumption, and steady hydroelectric inflows from the Nordic countries.
Kisel said inaccuracy of this forecast just a couple of weeks later is the result of the lack of wind energy. If conditions become windier, prices should start to fall, meaning the current high prices might not persist for the entire summer.
He said: "If we consider that in recent years, all the Baltic states have added renewable energy capacities, this should significantly reduce electricity prices, especially in summer when there is wind as well as sunshine," referring to the use of solar-generated electricity.
Nõu added that the greatest likelihood of low or negative prices in the Baltic states appears on summer weekends and at times when wind conditions are better than average, in addition to sunlight conditions.
The Alexela spokesperson said: "Despite that, we will not avoid the high peak prices in Estonia. To balance out prices, the electricity system needs significantly more flexible generation, but which is currently insufficient in Estonia."
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Editor: Andrew Whyte