We have seen enough in terms of efforts to knowingly provide false hope through unrealistic completion deadlines, glossy images of space station-looking rail terminals and CGI videos of trains whizzing past at several hundred kilometers per hour. What we haven't seen is a railway.

Nor is it possible to make any serious claims about when we might see Rail Baltica operational as we just don't know how and when money will be found to turn it all into reality.

The National Audit Office and its Baltic counterparts have worked together for eight years, compiling reports and audits on different aspects of what is the largest joint project in the history of the Baltic countries to link the latter to Poland and the rest of Europe, and to warn of potential risks and obstacles in good time.

Looking at Rail Baltica project management, I couldn't help thinking that instead of the activity plan, those responsible are executing the risk analysis instead. Deadlines are postponed, procurements fail or fall behind schedule etc.

At the same time, the public has and continues to be misled through empty promises on completion deadlines, with efforts made to stall providing a realistic overview also of the cost of the project.

Examples include the promise to launch passenger trains in 2031 or even December 2030 – this in a situation where no tangible source of funding has been pinned down.

Or the fact that sufficient sums have not been earmarked for 2027-2028 even though proposed deadlines suggest construction work should be well underway by then. (The explanatory memorandum of the 2024 state budget puts Rail Baltica funding for 2027 at just €37 million, down from €399 million for 2026.)

Not to mention that a tender process for trains hasn't even been launched yet in 2024, even though estimates suggest it will take eight years to procure the fleet and have it running. No sums have been earmarked for train purchases, whereas the approximated cost of €300 million falls squarely to the Baltics themselves.

The Ministry of Climate and OÜ Rail Baltic Eesti need to bring more openness and clarity to the process. For the project to make headway, the public and the Riigikogu need to be given clear and argumentation-based information in terms of by when can the railway be realistically completed, both technically and financially, how much money will be needed from one year to the next, when will the trains be procured and how will they be paid for, what is the cost of operating and maintaining the railway and how much of it needs to come from the state budget.

Actually involving the parliament in decisions pertaining to Rail Baltica is important as the project's financial volume has grown by leaps and bounds and may grow again in the future, which is set to constrain fiscal choices in other walks of life, possibly to a considerable degree. That is why it is important for the parliament to take a stand on whether the railway needs to be built at all costs, or whether there is a line somewhere the crossing of which would render the project unfeasible.

It is not enough for Estonia if just the local section of the railway is constructed. For people to be able to take the train from Tallinn to Warsaw or Berlin, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland need to hit their goals too. They do not need the Estonian section of Rail Baltica to go to Berlin, while we need theirs. The government must pay attention and be active when protecting our interests in these countries.

Otherwise, we run the risk of performing arts historians recalling the Rail Baltica experiment as follows: first, there was singing and dancing, which at some point turned into melodramatic folk buffoonery. From there came the heroics of propagandist agitators, followed by tears through laughter, a Finno-Ugric dramatic insight and finally a heartrending tragedy.

Suddenly, the curtain came down and a disheartened-looking announcer's laconic words: "The show has been canceled, there will be no refunds."

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