This February, the Russian outlet Argumenty i Fakty published a story about bananas being grown in Siberia. Last year, the head of a Russian research center promised that an experiment to grow bananas and lemons in Siberia would begin.

In 2019, the American publication Grist wrote that people should forget colonizing Mars — if Earth becomes too hot, everyone could simply move to Russia. Good luck with that! An enthusiast in Estonia also grows banana trees, though he realistically says it is only for interest and he does not expect fruit.

Climate warming naturally creates both anxiety and expectations. Some Estonian politicians have said that warmer weather would be beneficial. Having lived through this summer's heatwaves in Paris and watched news of wildfires, optimism is hard to muster. Still, perhaps Siberia's vast expanses could become a new Eldorado, where climate warming triggers gold‑rush‑like developments?

The discussion concerns the permafrost zone. Arctic areas cover 4.2 million square kilometres in Canada and 4.3 million in Russia. In Russia, these regions make up two‑thirds of the country's territory. Major cities such as Vorkuta, Norilsk and Yakutsk lie there, along with thousands of kilometres of railways and extensive pipeline networks. Seventy‑five percent of Russia's oil and 80 percent of its gas are produced in these areas.

Permafrost is soil that remains permanently below freezing. With climate change, it is thawing. Available data show that in Russia, permafrost thawed to an average depth of 45 centimetres in summer 1996, but by 2023 the depth had reached 70 centimetres. On one hand, this supports the optimists: these lands could be used for agriculture in coming decades.

But the situation is not that simple. All infrastructure and buildings were constructed assuming permanently frozen ground. Currently, 40–80 percent of buildings in Arctic cities are deformed or have subsided. Thousands of kilometres of pipelines are also deforming or breaking, causing environmental damage from leaking oil.

According to Dmitry Streletski, a professor at George Washington University, damage from permafrost thaw in Russia could reach up to $250 billion by 2050. There are other similar estimates, although the sums vary.

Still, buildings can be reinforced or rebuilt if needed — and if agriculture begins to flourish, funding may follow.

Canadian researchers suggested several years ago that climate warming could increase global agricultural land by up to one‑third over the next 50–100 years. Russian scientists have calculated that an additional degree of warming could add one trillion rubles to Russia's GDP, mostly from agriculture and forestry.

Canadian scientists have made similar calculations for their Arctic regions. They estimate that northern Canada could become a major grain producer in the future, though the timeline is again 50–100 years. Research suggests four crops have the best prospects: wheat, potatoes, corn and soybeans, all sufficiently cold‑resistant.

The need is clear: by mid‑century, the global population may reach nine billion, requiring roughly 70 percent more food than today.

Canadians also warn of the darker side. If all Arctic lands worldwide were converted to farmland, about 177 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases would be released from the soil — roughly equal to U.S. emissions over 120 years. Globally, permafrost contains about 1,400 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. Much of the released gas would be methane, which warms the climate 80 times more than CO₂.

The United States has tried to expand agriculture in Alaska to reduce reliance on imported food. Alaska currently produces about five percent of its needs, and locals have engaged in farming for more than 200 years.

Experiments have been conducted, but no breakthrough has emerged. One new method involves installing large solar panels directly above fields. They generate energy and shade the soil, mimicking a forest canopy and slowing permafrost thaw.

Thawing is also a problem in Russia's Arctic. When forests are cleared or burned, permafrost melts. The resulting ground is not farmland but swamp — with poor soil and uneven terrain. Permafrost contains ice lenses of various sizes, and when they melt, deep depressions form. Tractors cannot operate on such terrain; they sink and get stuck. After wildfires, thawing permafrost can create enormous craters.

Beyond Canada and Alaska, Russia faces another challenge: even if new farmland emerges, who will cultivate it?

People are fleeing these regions and the population continues to shrink. About 20,000 villages have been completely abandoned, and in 36,000 villages fewer than ten residents remain. Earlier plans envisioned monitoring systems and strategies for permafrost regions, but Russia currently lacks funding, men are being sent to war, and the permafrost issue is slipping down the priority list.

Meanwhile, climate warming has dried out Russia's traditional grain belt — the steppe regions — due to drought. In some areas, up to 70 percent of former cropland has become unusable.

In summary, climate optimism regarding Russia is premature, to put it mildly. But for those considering moving there instead of Mars, good luck.

Further reading

• Банановая империя. Вечная мерзлота тает, но в России заморозили работы по адаптации к этому явлению и верят в возможность выращивать бананы в Сибири. А зря — Новая газета Европа
• Открыть "врата в ад": Статьи экологии, 1, 03.02.2021
• Climate change to create farmland in the north, but at environmental costs - Advanced Science News
• Агроном Любошенко рассказала, как выращивает бананы в Сибири в феврале | АиФ Омск
• Fantasy Acres: Will Climate Change Actually Create More Northern Farmland? – resilience
• Forget colonizing Mars. We can all move to Russia when the world heats up. | Grist
• Permafrost grown: Investigating permafrost-agriculture interactions in Alaska

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