Speaking to Vikerraadio's morning program, Saks said: "Right now Ukraine's operation is proving two points. First, there were no Russian troops near the border, despite Russian attempts to portray otherwise and the western media's belief that a fresh attack might derive from there."

"Second, Russia has no combat-ready reserves. In the next couple of months, if Ukraine does not opt to withdraw, Russia will be unable to push them out from there," Saks continued.

So far, Ukraine has suffered notable few losses in its incursion into the Kursk oblast, Saks added.

"Ukraine, if it wants to continue this success, and seize the initiative, needs to deploy yet more reserves," he went on, estimating that Ukraine indeed most likely still has sufficient reserves for this.

Saks pointed out that the most dangerous scenario for Russia would be if large Ukrainian troop units were to redeploy from Donbas to Kursk. "This would make them very vulnerable and give Ukraine new opportunities," he outlined.

In fact: "Ukraine is aiming exactly for this. The Russian command understands that, and is consequently trying to escalate their offensive towards Pokrovske, in Donbas," he went on.

As to the reverse movement, ie. Russia redeploying its forces to Kursk, Saks said this was a major logistical operation.

"Armor would need to be loaded on to trains; there are no direct routes, and this would take weeks," he said. "If the equipment were to move under its own steam, it would lose resources for combat and require maintenance instead."

The most surprising aspect of the campaign so far, according to Saks, is the mass, unit-sized surrender of Russian troop, including over the past couple of days.

Saks' belief is that Ukraine is trying to advance another 10-15 kilometers inside the Kursk region, to reach logistics hubs which are key to Russia, and to expand the occupied area along the border, rather than deeper into Russian territory. "A key road to the north is Ukraine's main thrust of attack," he added.

Saks stressed the strong political dimension to Ukraine's operation being a success.

"Russia's president is trying to stick to his political line that this not a war, but rather a 'special military operation,'" Saks said.

"The capture of approximately 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk is thus highly visible."

It is also evident that the Russian army is struggling, Saks added, while the operation is also having the effect of showing, even to the Russian people themselves, that Vladimir Putin is not some sort of perfect being whose regime can never be gainsaid.

"Ukraine's political goal is to show that they control that territory, which aligns with the aim of demystifying Putin's political system, something Putin himself fears," said Saks.

The next logical step ideally would thus be regime change.

"Major political changes in Russia have always occurred after defeats in wars," Saks noted.

World War One ushered in the Russian Revolution, for instance, while defeat by Japan a decade or so earlier had led to an abortive revolution, too.

As to why Ukraine did not do all this earlier, rather than two-and-a-half years after the invasion began, Saks said this was likely due to capabilities.

He said: "Ukraine has been struggling to counter the Russian air threat. This is their most serious issue, as Russia managed to reorganize its air force tactics, forcing Ukraine to retreat in Donbas.

"Additionally, Western aid was delayed," Saks concluded, noting the big recent sea change.

Rainer Saks was talking to Vikerraadio.

An interactive map of the Ukraine front is here.

The U.S. had given the go-ahead to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries back in May, having been uneasy about them earlier. The current incursion has not yet been formulated in terms of the extent to which U.S.-supplied weaponry can be used.

The U.K. has given its blessing to the use of its weaponry as supplied to Ukraine, in the current incursion, and according to The Times, this has included Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks.

While referring to its invasion as a special military operation, Russia has been vocal in its criticism at the UN over the current Ukrainian operation in Kursk.

While the ongoing Ukrainian incursion is significant more for what it is than where it is taking place, in addition to the Kursk oblast's suitability for such an operation could be added symbolism, even if it is incidental to the main event.

Most famously, a major tank battle was fought in Kursk in 1943, a part of the turning of the tide by the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany.

A nuclear submarine named after the city and region sank after an explosion in 2000 with the loss of all hands, early on in Vladimir Putin's reign.

Finally, in the non-military sphere, the Theotokos of Kursk, an orthodox icon dating to the late 13th century, is regularly put on display there and elsewhere in Russia.

In any case the action represents the first time foreign military personnel have occupied any part of Russian territory since World War Two; one change since then has been that Russia has become a nuclear power.

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