Voog noted Isamaa lost five percentage points of support in the space of a month, though the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), too, has seen falling support, Voog noted in an interview given to ERR which follows.

The latest Kantar Emor poll shows a record low rating for EKRE. What has brought the party down to this level?

There haven't been many easy times for EKRE lately. Many prominent members have left, while now a serious rival has emerged from the ranks of its former members, registering itself as the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK).

The addition of this party to the list has also seen EKRE's position change significantly, and in a downward direction.

EKRE's rating was 10 percent in August, its lowest level since 2016.

Since that time (ie. 2016 – ed.), their rating had been somewhere close to 20 percent, and during the better times well above 20 percent: Around 25 percent.

What else has impacted EKRE's rating? It seems to be the case that the party leaders themselves have not been very active over the summer.

Indeed. Just as last summer, so two summers in a row. At the end of last summer, Isamaa's increase was precisely due to the fact that EKRE had been very inactive.

Also this summer. EKRE has been pretty inactive compared with the other months of the year. This passivity has also been reflected in the fact that their ratings have really fallen so low.

The media recently reported former EKRE politician Jaak Madison joining the Center Party. At a joint press conference with Center leader Mikhail Kõlvart, the pair defined a new direction for that party, which would place more on the right-wing/conservative axis. Will all this lead in the future to a situation where we see several parties all with a more conservative orientation and competing with each other?

Yes. Previously, under [Edgar] Savisaar, it was more centrist, but a good many of his promises were also left-leaning. But now with the redefinition it could certainly suit the mainstream electorate.

Their voter, their supporter tends to be of a more conservative mindset. Whether they are actually right-wing is, of course, another matter. They would rather perhaps support the idea, as the Center Party has always done, that state and local authority support for the survival of the population has been very high, or has been at the forefront of their pledges.

Now relating to Jaak Madison joining the Center Party. From one side, this could represent positive news. It could raise Center's ratings among Estonians, though looking at how the rest of the population has previously viewed Jaak Madison, well this has been somewhat negative and critical.

The question is how they will now come to embrace Madison. For sure it will not be an easy and short-term process. It remains to be seen how harmony will develop there, as there have been very strong discussions between [sitting Center MEP] Jana Toom and Jaak Madison.

 Anyway is support for the Center Party now starting to rise instead?

 Among Estonians somewhat, yes. A small upward swing was seen in August. However, among the remaining ethnicities, support for the Center Party fell a bit. For the Russian-speaking voter, the advent of Madison joining may have been too unforeseen.

Meanwhile, it had seemed that the support for Center among the Russian-speaking populace had stabilized at around 50 percent, yet now we are again entering a period where the support for the Center Party among the Russian-speaking population is not so stable, and may swing either up and down.

In the current situation, it is hard to see that the situation will change any time soon.

Could this diversification of conservative forces also prove quite bad news for Isamaa, which, according to the latest poll, has lost five percentage points of support in just a month?

Surely. Among Jaak Madison's personal supporters, there was also a fair proportion who supported Isamaa as a party. There may be a connection there. And given that between 2019 and 2021 the Center Party and Isamaa were also in coalition together, their support bases converged r. Now it could be the case that this process gets intensified further by the departure of Jaak Madison for Center. But these processes are pulling in different directions; there is no uniform driver.

One can at least say for sure that Isamaa is finding it harder, on the conservative side, because it is not such a radical conservative force as EKRE is, but something in between. And the latter will certainly start to compete with Isamaa. Then it will prove harder for Isamaa.

Jaak Madison joining Center is likely to have an impact on the ERK too, as for them it was not yet clear exactly what would become of them. Jaak Madison did not position himself clearly. He supported the ERK in a moral sense, but in the end, he still joined Center. Will this also drive some potential voters away from the ERK, following Madison?

That could certainly be the case. ERK's public image is still evolving.

The first rating we gave them was in and of itself very strong. For a new party to get 3.6 percent, as measured this August, is a very strong result. But now, with Madison joining Center, it certainly does not bode well for the new party, as many people thought that in the long term, Madison might still join it, but now it transpires the opposite is the case. This is certainly not a good message for the new party.

Let's also talk about Eesti 200. The future of that political party seems rather unclear. Support is very low, particularly for a governing party, at 4 percent. Eesti 200 has also been in the limelight lately, especially thanks to the appearances of Justice and Digital Affairs Minister Liisa Pakosta at government press conferences. Last week, Minister Pakosta announced there that her foreign trips would be validated by the  Estonian Association of Information Technology and Telecommunications (ITL), whose board includes head of Nortal Estonia and the wife of the Eesti 200 leader. Although Pakosta spoke of transparency against this backdrop, actions like those further questions. How could this impact Eesti 200?

Eesti 200's image has become very weak. Their activities have proven very confusing to their former supporters.

This continued confusion and lack of clarity or ambiguity is certainly not good for the party's image.

Certainly, Liisa Pakosta is not as important a figure for the party as is Margus Tsahkna and Kristina Kallas. Liisa Pakosta has also previously been involved with some very different political parties. So too has Margus Tsahkna, but he has still managed to hitch his wagon to Eesti 200 very strongly in recent years. These people exert more influence on the position of Eesti 200.

Now much depends on who will be Eesti 200's new chair. Whether this new leader will be able to bring freshness and confidence to potential supporters. Certainly, their position is a mixture.

How do you estimate the Reform Party's performance under the new head of government? And how has this affected SDE's position?

The new government has gotten a lot of media coverage and there has also been plenty of criticism of the plans that they are going to put in place, but it depends on the internal consistency and how consistent and understandable they are to their electorate.

At least in August, the Reform Party's situation improved a little while SDE's position also improved with certain target groups. On the one hand, this is a case of opportunity, but it is also unstable. Developments can take different directions. It hinges on the politicians from those parties, as to whether they can take advantage of this situation.

What is happening with the Center Party provides an opportunity for SDE to boost its support among the Russian-speaking population. This was already somewhat visible in August. But if Isamaa's position weakens now, it will give the Reform Party a chance to grow again, as among Isamaa's current supporters you can find many people who used to support the Reform Party.

The situation is confusing, but it offers opportunities and it is up to the parties themselves to see who can turn the situation in their favor

It is the prime minister's party, Reform, that will take the biggest hit from these planned tax increases. How will this impact on things?

Indeed. In 2009, when the VAT rate was also hiked during the summer, it made an impact. But it will depend on how life is and rather on the confidence of the Estonian populace.

If economic confidence remains volatile, as has been the case, and the government fails to strengthen confidence, then the Reform Party certainly cannot hope to succeed. Their only hope is that they will be able to improve confidence somewhat via some new and positive messages.

The Reform Party is strongly linked to the economic confidence of the population. Since they are certainly an economically oriented party, whose primary messages have always been economic in nature, this dependency is strongest with them.

This provides an opportunity for Parempoolsed, and perhaps others in opposition. Much depends on the direction in which the economic situation will move.

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