This is EKRE's lowest rating since 2016, according to the survey – commissioned by ERR and conducted by pollsters Kantar Emor.

Going by the month-on-month comparison, however, Isamaa saw the greatest fall in support – though it is still the most-supported party in Estonia.

Internal tensions erupted within EKRE in June, leading to the departure of several prominent members, either of their own will or by expulsion.

Since then new right-wing party, the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK), has emerged around a nucleus of former EKRE members, developments which have also had a noticeable impact on EKRE's ratings.

According to Kantar Emor, as recently as May, EKRE's rating was 18 percent. By July it had dropped to 13 percent, and as noted now stands at 10 percent.

The last time EKRE's support was this low was in the fall of 2016; its peak according to Kantar came in October 2022 (25 percent).

With the month-on-month comparison, the biggest drop in support was as noted seen by Isamaa: From 28 percent in July, to 23 percent this month.

Tied in second and third place are two of the three coalition parties, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and the Reform Party, each at 18 percent support in August.

Last month, SDE polled at 17 percent; Reform at16 percent, meaning both parties have managed to boost their support somewhat, in the case of Reform to reach parity with SDE.

The Center Party lies in fourth place at 14 percent support, a level largely unchanged over the past three months.

EKRE is in fifth, while the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed, founded in 2022, is just three percentage points behind at 7 percent, according to Kantar's August survey.

This is the first survey to include the newly formed ERK in its ranks. The party polled at 4 percent in August, the same level as the third coalition party, Eesti 200, Kantar Emor reports.

The Estonian Greens (Rohelised) and the Koos party each garnered 2 percent support, while all remaining parties polled at under 1 percent.

The Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition parties combined polled at 39 percent in August, compared with 46 percent for the opposition parties: Isamaa, EKRE and Center.

The gap between coalition and opposition has greatly narrowed compared with July's figures, when the coalition polled at 36 percent and the opposition 54 percent – from an 18 percentage-point gap to a seven percentage-point gap.

Support rating with "cannot say" responses included

When including respondents who answered "cannot say" in August's results, Kantar reports a total of 26 percent were undecided, slightly more than the figures in July (25 percent) and June (24 percent).

A total of 17 percent supported Isamaa with the "cannot say" respondents factored in, while 14 percent backed SDE; 13 percent picked Reform.

The Center Party polled at 9 percent by this metric, EKRE 7 percent and Parempoolsed 5 percent.

Eesti 200 and the ERK polled at 3 percent, and Koos and the Estonian Greens picked up 1 percent apiece when "cannot say" responses were incorporated.

Support by demographic

The most popular party among women voters in August was SDE at 24 percent, followed by Isamaa with 21 percent, the Reform Party with 20 percent, and Center, which polled at 15 percent.

Among men voters, Isamaa is firmly in first place at 25 percent according to Kantar..

Next comes EKRE and the Reform Party at 14 percent each.

Support for the Center Party among men voters stood at 13 percent; for SDE 11 percent and for Parempoolsed 9 percent.

The newly-formed ERK gained more support among male voters, where their support was nearly 6 percent, while among women voters it was below s percent.

Among native Estonian-speaking voters, Isamaa again came in first place at 28 percent according to Kantar Emor, while Reform and SDE were in joint second place (19 percent).

EKRE polled at 11 percent; Parempoolsed 9 percent.

The Center Party amassed nearly 5 percent support among Estonian voters, while ERK and Eesti 200 both polled at 4 percent.

Among voters of other nationalities, meaning overwhelmingly Russian-speaking voters, the Center Party continues to dominate, picking up nearly half - 48 percent - of this demographic's support.

SDE's support among voters of other nationalities stood 16 percent; Reform's at 11 percent.

Koos, which is an avowedly pro-Kremlin party by its statements, polled at close to 8 percent, while EKRE and Isamaa polled at 5 percent each.

ERK support was a fraction of one percent.

By region, a poll replicating Riigikogu election results were they to be held right now and confined to Tallinn alone put Center in a strong first place at 27 percent.

This was followed by SDE (20 percent), Isamaa (16 percent) and Reform (15 percent) – three of the four parties in office in the capital.

Support for Parempoolsed in Tallinn stood at 8 percent; for EKRE and Eesti 200, the latter in coalition in the capital, was 4 percent for each party.

ERK's support rating in Tallinn was 1.4 percent.

Briefly, ERK's support is much higher in some other regions of Estonia, notably Tartu County and neighboring Jõgeva County.

Generally its rating so far is higher among male, native Estonian voters who live in more rural areas and whose education is up to high school level, Kantar Emor reports.

In its August poll, Kantar Emor quizzed 1,528 Riigikogu voting-age (18 and over) citizens nationwide both online and over the phone, from August 15–21.

Kantar Emor claims a maximum margin of error of ±2.2 percent for the above results.

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