The survey, conducted by Norstat on behalf of conservative NGO the Institute of Societal Studies, found 39.4 percent of respondents back one of the three coalition parties: Reform, the Social Democrats (SDE) or Eesti 200, while 52.6 percent picked one of the opposition parties – Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), and the Center Party.

By party, 27.9 percent of respondents picked Isamaa, a 3.1 percentage-point drop over the past six weeks, compared with 18.6 percent who backed the Reform Party, and 17.7 percent who chose SDE.

Reform has boosted its support by 1.1 percentage points in the last week and 2.3 percentage points over the past four weeks, according to Norstat, leapfrogging its coalition partner SDE in the process.

The latter's support has remained at a fairly stable 17 to 18 percent over the past four weeks.

The top three are followed by EKRE at 12.9 percent, and Center not far behind at 11.8 percent this week according to Norstat.

Eesti 200 remains in the doldrums at 3.1 percent, below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in a given electoral district, and behind the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed party's 4.7 percent rating.

Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks. The current survey covers the period July 29 to August 25, during which time 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were quizzed.

Norstat says it uses a combined online and phone survey method and weights its sample of respondents according to various socio-economic and demographic indicators.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of party by support, so for instance, Isamaa as the most-supported party comes with a margin of error of +/-1.73 percent, compared with +/-0.67 percent for Eesti 200, currently the least-supported of the major parties.

The next direct elections in Estonia are in October 2025, to all 79 local municipalities.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!