Forecaster: September will be much warmer than average
September's daytime temperatures are expected to break records this year as they are much higher than usual, said Taimi Paljak, the Environment Agency's lead forecaster.
Last September, the average air temperature in Estonia was 15.6 °C – or 3.4 °C higher than the norm. This broke a record that had stood for almost 100 years.
Paljak expects this month to be even warmer.
"It seems likely that this [September] will break the record as well. What is unusual is that it is the daytime highs that have risen so much. Last year, there were no such daytime maximums where, day after day, the temperature reached the highest levels in the observation period," she told Tuesday's "Terevisioon".
Paljak added that the temperatures will probably continue: "In the meantime, the air will get a little fresher, but by the end of the week, the beginning of the new week, we may see daytime highs of 24-25-26 degrees again."
This would be very unusual for mid-September, she added.
The high temperatures have been caused by a high-pressure anticyclone over Russia. This is preventing typical autumn Atlantic cyclones from reaching the Baltic Sea region.
"Currently, the high-pressure system is so powerful that warm air is flowing in from the south-southeast along its edge. This warm air is also dry, making this September likely drier than usual," Paljak explained.
The heat may tail off around September 22 or 23, forecasts show. Night frosts could arrive at the end of September or the beginning of October.
Paljak said the models also predict a warmer October than usual.
"November could start bringing weather patterns that are typical for our region. Hopefully, we will get some rain, as this extended dry period is starting to worry gardeners. Trees and bushes cannot quench their thirst properly before winter in such conditions," the lead forecaster said.
The warm end of summer and September have also affected the animal kingdom, especially insects. Natural sciences teacher Marko Valker told ERR correspondent Juhan Hepner that many butterflies have had an extra generation.
Additionally, many migratory butterflies and moths have been spotted this year.
"There has been a surprisingly high number of convolvulus hawk-moths this year, both in Estonia and in Lääne County. It is a migratory moth that travels to us from very far away. Heatwaves can bring us butterflies and dragonflies with strong flying abilities, arriving from the south," he explained.
Due to the higher activity of insects, birds have been feeling the benefit.
"These birds now have a good food base. In September, mosquitoes have also been very abundant in some places. The departure of insectivorous birds, whose wintering grounds remain in Europe, may be delayed," added Valker. For example, the finch migration is currently taking place.
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Editor: Jaan-Juhan Oidermaa, Helen Wright
Source: "Terevisioon", interviewed by Katrin Viirpalu