On Monday, the average price of electricity on the exchange in Estonia will be €174.59 per megawatt-hour. Notably, from 9 to 10 a.m., the price will spike to €476.81, and between 10 and 11 a.m., it will be €421.50 per megawatt-hour.

The price will remain above €100 for almost the entire day. During the night, between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m., the price will range between €60 and €80 per megawatt-hour, and late in the evening from 11 p.m. to midnight, it will also be around €80. The lowest price of the day, €57.30 per megawatt-hour, will occur between midnight and 1 a.m. on late Monday evening.

Earlier this week, the average price of electricity remained below €100 per megawatt-hour. However, towards the end of the week, prices jumped, reaching between €350 and €400 during peak hours on Thursday and Friday.

In Finland, the price of electricity on Monday will be the same as in Estonia, while in Latvia and Lithuania, the average price will be lower, at €117.72 per megawatt-hour.

Energy expert Kalev Kallemets commented on the price increases, stating that although electricity supply security in the Estonian region is fundamentally ensured, price shocks are unavoidable.

Kallemets noted on social media that in January of this year, the average monthly electricity price was €126 per megawatt-hour, and according to Alexela's forecast, prices on the exchange could average between €90 and €120 during colder months this winter.

However, Kallemets pointed out that the coming winter will have clear differences compared to the previous one.

"In Finland, two coal-fired power plants, Suomenoja (270 MW) and Meri-Pori (560 MW), with a combined 830 MW capacity, are out of the market. Meri-Pori will be activated in the event of a supply security risk. As of February 8, 2025, the 500 MW electricity trade with Poland will end (in winter, the Baltic region regularly imports electricity from Poland). The reliability and readiness of Narva's capacity are even lower than in 2023/2024. Last winter, none of the 1,000 MW capacity was operational at any point. If the 700 MW fluidized bed boilers work, that would be a positive outcome. After OL3 (Olkiluoto 3) came online, electricity production from oil shale has been minimal. Additionally, there have been issues with the gas turbine operations in Lithuania and Latvia this year (for instance, there was a fault in Riga's 800 MW gas turbine on Friday), so reliability is certainly not 100 percent. Hopefully, there won't be any surprises with the Estlink connections, the LitSwe connection or Finland's nuclear reactors," he detailed.

"In a strict sense, supply security is guaranteed, but protection from price shocks is getting worse, and this is the kind of 'market' that has been shaped over the years," Kallemets added.

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