Expert: The signs of a Trump electoral win were there if you looked closely
Donald Trump's return to the White House was not as unexpected as some would have had it, if one takes a closer look at the polls and other indicators, United States expert and consultant Andreas Kaju said.
Similarly, major changes on many fronts including the green transition should not be expected either, he said.
"If we analyze strictly the polls, the results of the U.S. election are still within the margin of error, while signs of Donald Trump's victory have been present in all surveys for months," Kaju said, speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera."
"Trump's bolstered positions with the minorities, especially Latinos and also particularly among young men regardless of their skin color: This all occurred and transpired," Kaju went on.
"This was also one of the most major changes compared to the 2020 election results," he added.
According to Kaju, what was more unexpected was that millions of Democrats opted to stay home compared with the case in 2020.
"There is no satisfactory explanation for this, as yet," he said.
"My belief is that the Democrats will be reflecting on this for many months to come. Did they fall short on the right message, considering that the main issue turned out to be the economy? Did their candidate fail to hit home convincingly, or was something else at play?" Kaju said.
This boils down to Trump now enjoying power about as close to absolute as is possible in a constitutional democracy replete with its checks and balances, though the seeds of change are contained in that anyway.
Kaju said: "Such situations are rare and do not last long."
"The midterms in America are just two years away. The American voter tends to react by expressing mistrust in at least one of the two chambers of Congress, by switching out the party which is in control," he went on, hinting at the big wins the Republicans have also seen in the Senate and in the House.
"However, for the next two years, [Congress] will likely remain in Republican hands, as it is today," Kaju noted.
"Trump has two years to implement the policies he has pledged to his voters. Swift action will be seen on the economy and immigration," Kaju said.
While all eyes are also turning to Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine, with expectations including an attempted redoubling of Russian efforts in the last few weeks of this year at a time when the Biden administration is expediting €16 billion in aid to Kyiv before it leaves office, Kaju said there is no point expecting a quick resolution.
"No one has that expectation," Kaju said, adding: "That said I was surprised today by the enthusiasm and optimism of Estonian political analysts regarding Trump's taking office, and perhaps it reflects our disappointment with Biden's policies."
As for other areas unlikely to see dramatic change, Kaju said: "An end the green transition by Trump is an illusion as the central government in America does not drive the green transition."
"It may even come as a surprise to many that the largest developers of solar and wind energy are in Republican-controlled states, namely Texas and Oklahoma," he went on.
"Americans want to be an energy-exporting nation—no matter the source," Kaju said.
Overall, "a collapse of the current world order is not something to fear," Kaju added.
"Even for Biden, the economy and jobs were paramount, followed by security. We are currently seeing the results of this in Ukraine," Kaju added.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mari Peegel
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' interviewers Astrid Kannel and Priit Kuusk.