"We will continue doing exactly what we have been doing – investing heavily in our security and national defense. The connection between the European Union and America will remain intact. Russia's aggression against Ukraine has not changed overnight, nor has the international security situation. Therefore, we must continue our work," Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) told ERR on Wednesday. "I want to emphasize again that there is no reason for us to be deeply concerned or for Estonia to change its approach. Estonia has held a clear stance on these issues for years," he stressed.

Tsahkna referenced Trump's criticism of Europe's defense spending but noted that Estonia is among NATO's top spenders on defense. "Our defense investments currently stand at 3.4 percent [of GDP], in addition to a defense investment program focused on long-range capabilities, and our foreign policy has been very clear," he said.

Tsahkna does not believe that Trump would sever ties with Europe and NATO.

"No, I do not believe that the United States would withdraw. Our transatlantic bond is existential and mutually beneficial. The United States is certainly an economic partner for us, but it is also a global guarantor of security," said the foreign minister. "For the United States, Europe remains its most significant ally, both in terms of security and economic policy. There is no chance the U.S. would leave Europe and NATO will continue to be a crucial security organization during Trump's presidency."

Tsahkna references his experience as defense minister

Tsahkna repeatedly recalled that he served as minister of defense from 2016 to 2017, during the start of Donald Trump's first term as president of the United States, and emphasized that there is no reason to reflect negatively on that period.

"I was Estonia's minister of defense when Trump was first elected. At that time, there was a similar situation where no one knew exactly what to expect. We took the same calm approach then – we focused on our own efforts," he said. "My experience as defense minister during Trump's first term tells me that we should first let Trump assume office and then see what actions follow – there is no need for us to change our policies or positions; we are on the right track," he added.

Tsahkna highlighted that during Trump's previous term, European defense was strengthened: "If we look at Trump's first term, despite initial uncertainty about what would happen, our region received more military security, more financial support and an increased presence of troops on the ground. This is my only reference point from my time as defense minister during Trump's first presidency."

He also recalled that when Trump was in office for the first time, he acted decisively in response to the use of chemical weapons by Syria's dictator in 2017 by launching 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Syrian military targets. "This defined him as a decisive president on behalf of the United States in conflict situations," the foreign minister said.

However, Tsahkna also stressed that times have changed and the world is now even more volatile.

"In my view, we are in a situation reminiscent of 1938, before the Munich Agreement, when [British Prime Minister Neville] Chamberlain returned to London holding a piece of paper, declaring peace. I sincerely hope we are not heading in that direction but rather that the Western world will stand firmly together, end Russia's aggression in Ukraine and also reach a resolution and clarity in the Middle East, which is another major conflict," he explained.

"But what can be said with certainty is that U.S. foreign policy will become more pronounced," the foreign minister added.

Criticism of Trump's statements

However, Tsahkna's remarks contained implicit criticism of Trump's statements, including his claims that he could end the war in Ukraine in a single day and his threats toward NATO countries he believes contribute too little to defense.

"The question remains as to how Trump will shape his policy regarding Ukraine and Russia's aggression. On this, we are very clear – no agreements over Ukraine's head, without Ukraine's involvement, can be made to achieve a truly just and lasting peace," he said.

"Regarding Ukraine, yes, statements about ending the war in a few days sound appealing, but this war must end on Ukraine's terms, with the aggressor being pushed back to its own territory," he later emphasized.

"The core issue is that the United States surely has no interest in seeing Russia remain an aggressor state, as that would lead to repeated aggression. Especially if encouraging signals are sent by allies that might embolden Russia to test NATO's unity. This would directly elevate our own significant security risks. But there is no need to jump ahead of events," the foreign minister concluded.

Estonia prepared for a Trump victory

Tsahkna also confirmed that Estonia's foreign service has been engaging with the teams of both Trump and Harris, preparing for either potential victory scenario.

"We actively communicate and work with the United States, and we must recognize that the U.S. is a major democracy that has now chosen its president. We have indeed engaged with both sides. Our foreign policy positions are very clear and our actions, not just our words, have consistently focused on strong investment in national defense, as well as clear messages and actions. I reiterate that Estonia will continue on the path it has been on," emphasized the foreign minister.

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