Analysts: Trump tariffs may spark trade war, impact Estonia's economy
A feared tariff war could impact Estonia negatively, some analysts say, following the reelection of Donald Trump to a second, non-consecutive term as United States president.
The deadlock will primarily concern the U.S. and China, but a forecast tariff hike of 10 percent with regard to Europe will make its effects known on this continent too, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported.
Some of the major global financial markets, for instance Wall Street, reacted optimistically to Donald Trump's presidential election victory. The U.S. dollar strengthened against other currencies, and cryptocurrencies also rallied, the news show reported.
Peeter Koppel, head of the division at Redgate Capital, said that Trump's economic policy rests on three main pillars: "Protective tariffs, lower taxation for businesses, and the fact that he sees himself as a strong man, who knows best," Koppel enumerated. By their very nature, tariffs, which hearken back to more isolationist stances U.S. administrations tended to take when the country was much younger than now, are an issue for those wanting to export to the U.S. They tend not to exist in a vacuum. In other words, a tit-for-tat tariff war with China may very well ensue.
As for lower corporate tax, this, too, could lead to headaches in Europe and elsewhere, while it cannot be ruled out that some companies may want to relocate to the U.S., just as some U.S. and other firms have relocated major operations and even headquarters to Ireland in recent decades. Koppel said: "It is also feasible that America's role in the business establishment, or where companies are established, could grow."
Peeter Luikmel, head of external economy at the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank), said Trump aims to reserve the most punitive tariffs for China, however.
"This protectionism is primarily directed at China, which could mean that the U.S. imposes significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods," Luikmel said.
Figures reported on tariff hikes have been in the 40-60 percent range, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported. For Europe, the figure would be lower, potentially in the region of 10 percent, which Luikmel referenced as a general global number for tariff rises.
The move could lead to a response in kind from this side of the Atlantic, he noted, saying: "If Europe responds with a similar policy, for example, by raising tariffs by a tenth to maintain its competitiveness, which is by no means guaranteed, then import prices in Europe could also rise somewhat."
Swedbank's chief economist Tõnu Mertsina concurred that a trade war is likely to ensue, which would also have ramifications for Estonia.
"If a conflict indeed arises, trade tensions increase, and this generates more uncertainty /.../ The U.S. is a very important trading partner of Germany's, Sweden's and Finland's," he went on, with the implication being that this has a knock-on effect on Estonia as these three countries are among Estonia's most significant trade partners too.
"With Sweden and Finland, [the U.S.] is the third-largest [trade partner], so if these countries are negatively impacted, we too will feel some of that impact, indirectly," Mertsina concluded.
Trump was the first president to win a non-consecutive second term since Grover Cleveland in the last decade-and-a-half of the 19th century. Like Trump, Cleveland lost the intervening election separating his two terms.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Toomas Pott.