"Last week, we witnessed the collapse of Germany's coalition government. It started with a move by the liberals, who pressed their demands and appeared ready and willing to break up the coalition. By dismissing the finance minister, Scholz effectively ended the three-party coalition," said Thomas Michael Linsenmaier, an analyst at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies.

Linsenmaier noted that Scholz initially planned to wait until March for the next elections, but now both the opposition and the liberals, who exited the coalition, are pushing for an earlier election date.

"The public is now leaning in that direction as well. It's possible that the elections could take place in January," the analyst said.

According to Linsenmaier, current opinion polls indicate that the main opposition party, the conservative CDU, is leading, followed by the far-right AfD.

"The three parties that were in the government are polling quite low. It will be difficult for them in the upcoming elections. There is a high likelihood that we will no longer see an SPD-led government under Scholz. None of the three coalition parties stand to benefit from early elections, while the conservative right and far-right are likely to gain strength. There is also a strong possibility of seeing a new party in parliament – the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a far-left populist movement," Linsenmaier explained.

The future of German foreign policy largely hinges on the election outcome and the subsequent coalition formation. While much remains uncertain, some fault lines are already becoming evident.

"The most attention should be given to the potential vote shares of the AfD and BSW. Their perspectives on Germany's role in foreign and military affairs, particularly regarding support for Ukraine, differ significantly from other parties. Both have stated in their platforms during local elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg that aid to Ukraine should be limited. Their stance favors diplomacy as a means to achieve peace, rather than continued military support. If either becomes pivotal in forming the government, it will have a major impact on German foreign policy," Linsenmaier explained.

Linsenmaier pointed out that Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck proposed a special fund (Sondervermögen) for the armed forces on Monday, fearing that if the AfD and BSW secure more than a third of the seats in parliament, this move would no longer be feasible, as it would require a two-thirds majority.

Should the next government be formed by mainstream parties – the CDU, SPD, Greens and Liberals – major shifts in foreign policy are unlikely, according to Linsenmaier. However, he noted that recent polls indicate the Liberals might struggle to surpass the 5 percent threshold.

"The CDU has publicly stated its intention to increase defense spending and continue the 'Zeitenwende' initiative launched by Scholz, though progress has stalled," the analyst remarked.

The current situation in German politics is far from ordinary.

"While calling it a crisis might be too strong, it is a disruptive moment that must also be viewed in the context of the U.S. elections," Linsenmaier observed.

"There is a need for stable leadership, especially considering the European Union. At present, Germany lacks a stable government and thus cannot be a strong voice within the EU at a time when the U.S. is adjusting its foreign policy. This poses a challenge for other European partners in compensating for Germany's role," Linsenmaier concluded.

Brüggemann: Risk of a new unstable coalition considerable

"The forecast is that there is no clear forecast," said Karsten Brüggemann, a professor of political and social history at Tallinn University, discussing the near-term future of German politics.

"The direction of Germany's foreign policy will depend on the election results. If the AfD or BSW achieve a majority, then the traditional German political landscape will be at an end. However, it is important to note that federal elections operate under different dynamics compared to those in the eastern German states, and the AfD and BSW do not necessarily cooperate well with each other," Brüggemann said.

Brüggemann acknowledged the current difficulty in making any reliable predictions.

"Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems to have a very high opinion of himself, given that polling shows his SPD's ratings are quite low. His actions appear almost like public self-destruction, but perhaps he has a plan. In the fall of 2021, during the last elections, no one believed he would become chancellor, yet he managed to form a coalition," Brüggemann remarked.

"It can be predicted that if everything goes as usual, the CDU will secure the majority and Friedrich Merz will become the new chancellor. However, whether the CDU will garner enough votes to form a coalition remains uncertain. We can see how challenging this is in Thuringia and Saxony, where the AfD and BSW collectively account for over 40 percent. While these two parties are stronger in the eastern states than in the west, they may still capture 25-30 percent in the Bundestag elections. If that happens, it will be very difficult for other parties to assemble a functional coalition. It's a challenging situation," said Brüggemann.

He explained that traditionally in Germany, election results have enabled two parties to form a coalition.

"The current coalition is the first to experiment with a three-party arrangement. I don't foresee any scenario in early elections where two parties could secure enough votes to form a government. Recently, CSU leader Markus Söder ruled out a coalition with the Greens. Given disagreements over aiding Ukraine, CDU/CSU cannot reach an agreement with BSW, leaving them to hope for a coalition with the SPD and FDP. However, it's uncertain whether the FDP can secure the necessary votes to even enter parliament, as their current ratings are too low," Brüggemann added.

Brüggemann emphasized that this raises the real risk of yet another highly unstable coalition.

Mertelsmann: Wagenknecht a questionable character

"It currently seems likely that Germany will see a new grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats. However, there could also be very unpleasant surprises, such as the AfD increasing its share or BSW entering parliament. Neither I nor anyone else knows how these elections will turn out," said Olaf Mertelsmann, a professor of East European History at the University of Tartu.

Mertelsmann emphasized that holding new elections in Germany as soon as possible is crucial, given that the United States is soon to have a new president.

Speaking about the potential negative impacts of the AfD and BSW, Mertelsmann noted that certain factions of the AfD are decidedly undemocratic.

"Meanwhile, BSW is a left-wing populist group that includes former communists-socialists and various alternative environmentalists, and they are pro-Putin. In state elections, they not only managed to enter parliament, but genuinely democratic parties have been forced to consider coalition arrangements with them," Mertelsmann explained.

"It's also unclear whether BSW is democratic at all: it's a political alliance under the banner 'Elect Me, Sarah!' – with the rest being largely unknown faces. It is essentially a one-woman party led by someone who was a Stalinist within her post-socialist party in the 1990s. I have no sympathy for her – she is a populist who knows how to speak well, like a skilled pianist hitting all the right notes, but she remains a deeply questionable figure. She has never held real political accountability, and yet she now has over 15 percent support in eastern German states. It's very concerning. Just like the AfD," Mertelsmann remarked.

In parliament, the AfD and BSW will hold fewer seats than they do in eastern Germany. Forecasts clearly show that their support is higher in the former East Germany (GDR) due to the legacy of socialism and the crises of the 1990s. It is unlikely that these two questionable parties will gain more than 35 percent nationwide, but even that would present a minor catastrophe by significantly complicating many important initiatives.

Discussing the causes of the coalition's collapse, Mertelsmann noted that both the SPD and the Liberals hoped to gain support by breaking up the coalition.

"But it wasn't just Scholz and Lindner – the Greens also played a more constructive role in the coalition than some expected. However, the three no longer meshed well. They managed to withstand two major crises – the COVID-19 pandemic and then Russia's attack on Ukraine – but they are not functioning together effectively anymore. It had already been a long time since this government was truly operating cohesively," Mertelsmann said.

Describing Europe's political situation, Mertelsmann remarked, "One unpleasant development after another. The French elections were what they were. Now Germany faces several months under a caretaker government. The situation continues to become more problematic."

"If the pressure from the east increases, naturally, the Baltic countries and Poland will be at the forefront of bearing that pressure. Secondly, Estonia, being a highly globalized country, will feel the effects if the European Union's economic engine fails to function well, which would also be reflected in our wallets," Mertelsmann said, commenting on the potential impact of Germany's political instability on Estonia.

On November 6, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner after weeks of disputes over the government's future economic direction.

Lindner, 45, leader of the business-oriented FDP, had issued an 18-page ultimatum a week prior, calling for a comprehensive revision of the government's budget plans for the coming year.

A confidence vote on Scholz's government is scheduled for January 15, 2025.

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