Raul Rebane: Estonia's troubles aren't the world, let us look beyond
In his daily commentary on Vikerraadio, Raul Rebane recommends visiting Georgia or Moldova to gain a better appreciation of how well things have progressed in Estonia.
The U.S. election recently drew much of the world's attention, but now it's time to look closer to home. Elections in two of our former Soviet-era peers, Georgia and Moldova, are also of great significance to us. Above all, they offer a chance to learn why these countries' paths have diverged from ours.
I have had the opportunity to visit both countries in recent years. I recommend taking the time to travel there, explore and make comparisons. Perhaps this would help lower the volume of nationwide complaining. We, in Estonia, have genuinely pulled miles ahead.
On the other hand, what is happening there serves as a critical lesson on how fragile democracy can be for nations living near the Russian border and how strong the influence of Russian propaganda, local oligarch interests, clans and historical ties can be.
For both Georgia and Moldova, the question was whether to choose a European or Russian direction. Georgia leaned towards Russia, while Moldova opted for Europe. Moldova's European Union referendum was narrowly passed, and the presidential election on November 3 yielded a clearer result, with Maia Sandu being re-elected with 55 percent of the vote, while her pro-Russian rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, garnered nearly 45 percent. Nonetheless, this does not stop Russia – which invested heavily to maintain its influence in Moldova – from claiming that the elections were illegitimate. The current wave of information attacks is extremely intense.
I visited various regions of Moldova at the end of September and met with lecturers, teachers and students. Even then, it was clear that this nation faces no easy path ahead. The main challenge lies in the absence of a grand narrative, a unifying dream or, more simply, a compelling "story" like ours. This leaves them scattered rather than united, even in the face of significant external threats, which for them, as for us, originate almost exclusively from Russia.
In the south, Moldova has an autonomous region called Gagauzia, with its capital in Comrat. It serves as a symbolic struggle for a "glorious Soviet past," with a tank on a pedestal and a statue of Lenin on the main street. During the elections, something astonishing happened: 97.04 percent of the voters in Gagauzia supported Alexandr Stoianoglo. This figure is suspiciously high since such levels of support are virtually impossible to achieve in democratic countries. My interactions with the local university convinced me that while many older people tend to vote in favor of Russia, it is highly unlikely that such an absolute majority among younger voters share the same sentiment.
Some voting choices are clearly influenced by perceptions of the past. For example, in the northern town of Bălți, a Russian-speaking man explained his views standing beside another tank monument. He said he couldn't understand anything in the presidential candidates' debates because they were in Romanian. Still, he was resolute: "I just don't want a woman as president!" This older, conservative and non-Romanian-speaking man reflects a broader mindset found in certain parts of the country.
In Georgia, the Russian-leaning party Georgian Dream, effectively controlled by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, won the elections. As a result, the country's European trajectory is now in question for the foreseeable future.
It is hard for us to comprehend how, just 15 years after losing 20 percent of their territory to Russia during the war, over 50 percent of Georgians could vote for Ivanishvili's party. It would be as if Russia annexed Ida-Viru County and 15 years later, Estonia elected a pro-Russian party to power – a difficult scenario to even imagine.
It is evident that some voters believe in Russian narratives, such as the claim that the 2008 Georgian war and the current opposition's pro-European stance are American-backed conspiracies. It's disheartening. Understanding the decision-making of these voters is nearly impossible without considering historical context and former ties. For instance, many Georgian towns still have memorials displaying the portraits of all 93 Soviet Union heroes from the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In every former Soviet republic, except for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, democracy has faced immense challenges, if it has taken root at all. This does not mean we should become complacent. As an Estonian proverb says, "Whether you do good or bad, you do it for yourself." Our support, experience and example are highly valuable, especially in Moldova.
Maia Sandu faces a monumental task ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, with Russia already preparing an aggressive campaign to reclaim Moldova through those elections.
Once again, for those feeling particularly discouraged, I encourage you to visit these places. Upon returning home, what we perceive as massive problems will suddenly seem far smaller.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski