This means that Russia's influence operations, which backed Sandu's opponent, ultimately failed, Estonian diplomat Mart Viires noted.

Commenting from the Estonian Embassy in Chisinau, Viires said: "The result was indeed somewhat closer than all predictions and opinion polls had indicated."

"However, one can stated that despite Russia's efforts, and we're really talking about industrial-scale influence operations at play here, their attempts came to naught," he went on.

"We're talking on the level of flying voters in from another country to vote against Sandu, bussing voters in; a local network. This really involved hundreds of thousands of people. Despite this, Russia's efforts fell short, as Moldovan voters came together," Viires added.

Moldova, today you are victorious. Together, we've shown the strength of our unity, democracy, and commitment to a dignified future.

Thank you, dear Moldovans, at home and abroad. Walk with pride—you are freedom, hope, and resilience. I am proud to serve you all. pic.twitter.com/yGGlrjAMEC

— Maia Sandu (@sandumaiamd) November 3, 2024

Sandu garnered just over 55 percent of the vote in the second round run-off on Sunday, based on results from 99.86 percent of ballots counted.

Her opponent, former chief prosecutor of Moldova Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by the country's Socialist Party, polled at 44.59 percent.

The actual issue at stake and separating the two candidates was actually quite simple.

"Primarily this was an ideological choice: Whether to continue on the current Western track or turn backwards toward Russia," Viires noted.

There is little reason to fear that the result will be overturned, and that pro-Russian Moldovans will take to the streets after the European-oriented victory, not least since the latter only turned out for the fairly simple and risk-free act of voting thanks to financial sweeteners.

Viires said: "This outcome's likelihood is rather small, as the main motivation for pro-Russian voters is the money that illegal groups pledge for mobilization [at the ballot box]."

"There have also been several stories in the media of people coming out to vote against Sandu primarily because they were promised €50, or €100. They've admitted that they wouldn't have shown up had they not been paid," Viires added.

In Viires' estimation, the presidential election plus a recent EU membership referendum can be seen as a dress rehearsal for next year's parliamentary elections, while they also demonstrate that Moldova has already learned much from Russia's influence operations, though unfortunately the reverse is likely also the case.

"From Russia's perspective, next year's parliamentary elections are undoubtedly more significant. They got to evaluate how effective their entire influence operation had been, though on the other hand, this has also provided Moldova's government and security services with essential insights into what to expect and prepare for in elections going forward."

Now democratically reelected for a second term, Maia Sandu's long-awaited judicial reform had previously been stalled by internal resistance within the judicial system.

This means that Sandu cannot rest on her laurels, as voters are now expecting action.

"Judicial reform is precisely what is holding up Moldova's economic development and progress in maintaining the rule of law. The Moldovan public wants to see a curbing of corruption, with decisions that are comprehensible and transparent. President Sandu will need to demonstrate to the people that she has set aside the kid gloves, and is prepared to take decisive steps forward, especially when it comes to EU membership," the Estonian diplomat continued in his assessment.

Maia Sandu took victory in the presidential election over Alexandr Stoianoglo by securing 54.35 percent of the vote, thanks in no small part to the strong support from the Moldovan diaspora, mainly living in democratic western nations.

Congratulations President @sandumaiamd!

You have done a remarkable job, taking #Moldova a long way on the #European road & we wish you strength to continue on this path.

People of Moldova, congratulations on choosing democracy & progress!

— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) November 4, 2024

Within the vote from inside Moldova's borders alone, Sandu lost, though only marginally.

Her victory is thus seen as an endorsement of the country's EU aspirations, though Stoianoglo's apparent relative popularity signals a challenging path for Sandu's party in next year's parliamentary elections, in appealing to voters favoring balanced relations with both the EU and Russia.

Accusations of Russian interference marred the election, with allegations of cyberattacks, vote-buying schemes manipulated voter transport and other misdeeds underscoring ongoing tensions over Moldova's geopolitical direction.

With close cultural and linguistic ties to neighboring Romania, Moldova, historically roughly corresponding to a region known as Bessarabia, was like Estonia once occupied by the Soviet Union and became independent in 1991.

However, the eastern region of Transnistria, which has a significant Russian-speaking populace, declared independence shortly after that, establishing a self-proclaimed de facto state-within-a-state, albeit one that remains internationally unrecognized de jure.

Moldova also has a Black Sea coast and borders Ukraine, to the east and north, and as such, a worst-case scenario of Russia's invasion of Ukraine could have included an attempt to occupy that entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine, stretching west into Moldova.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!