ESTDEV: Moldova's referendum shows there is still a lot of explaining to do

Moldova's very narrow referendum result on joining the European Union shows there is still a lot of work to do, said Klen Jäärats, executive director of the Estonian Centre for International Development (ESTDEV).
Jäärats told "Valisilm" that Moldova's choice in the referendum – which returned a "yes" vote of 50.4 percent – was geopolitical and the result was close.
"The question of whether this is purely a choice between Europe or not Europe is also somewhat debatable. From what I understand from various analysts, there were several options at play, and these could be politically interpreted in different ways. Even the main opposition candidate has stated that they support Moldova's European path. In this sense, the question of whether Moldova will ultimately choose the European path is still open," he explained.
Moldova's path to the EU membership is still just starting, Jäärats said. The narrow result shows there is still as lot of clarity needed on the issue within the country.
"In our own referendum, we voted in favor of the final outcome while simultaneously amending the constitution. It was clear to us what kind of European Union we were joining, what needed to be done, and what choices were available. To align with that legal system, we amended our constitution. So, a similar choice only came before us at the end of the process. That's why I said that Moldova still has this choice ahead of them," he told the show.

"I believe that the outcome of the referendum shows that there is still a great deal of explanatory work ahead. On the other hand, many European Union citizens already live in Moldova, having exercised the EU's fundamental freedoms, as they are citizens. So, among those who likely voted in favor, a significant portion likely came from the expatriate community, which had a strong influence on the final voting result," Jäärats added.
Moldova's aim to become a member of the European Union by 2030 may be realistic, he said, but it also depends on the bloc's choices.
"I believe the question of how existing EU members will approach the process also depends somewhat on how the war in Ukraine ends and what the geopolitical choice will be. Will our choice ultimately be to follow a peaceful process, closing and opening chapters step by step? This moderate-paced process could take quite some time. However, we must also consider that geopolitical decisions may need to be made, as has happened previously in the European Union, which could require moving more quickly and making compromises. I think these discussions have not yet been held, and it's difficult to predict exactly what the final deadline will be," the executive director said.
"What we do know is that the new European Union budget is set to take effect in 2028, and it is typically difficult to make changes to the budget mid-period. By that point, everyone has already received something or is expecting something, and any adjustments would require painful compromises from all parties involved," Jäärats added.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Helen Wright
Source: "Valisilm", interview by Joosep Värk