ERR in Moldova: Russia has tried to influence elections, EU referendum
Sunday is Election Day in Moldova, where voters are casting their ballots for president as well as in a referendum on the EU. Russia has been using intimidation and bribery tactics in efforts to influence the results.
In the referendum, Moldovan citizens are being asked whether they support the amendment of the Constitution to include the country's EU accession aspirations. This change is necessary to ensure that future governments cannot easily abandon the country's pro-European course.
Russia is working hard to sway the outcome. It has funneled around $250 million (€230 million) into efforts to influence the presidential elections, the referendum as well as next year's parliamentary elections. This is equal to roughly 1 percent of Moldova's GDP.
Ludmila Barba, a journalist at public broadcaster TeleRadio-Moldova (TRM), told ERR that Russia's influence activities have reached "cosmic proportions" this year.
"We've seen it all: fake news, forged letters from ministries, even from the EU delegation itself," Barba described. "We've even seen that."
According to Moldovan police, Russian-backed oligarch Ilan Shor has, with Moscow's support, established a network of 130,000 people who regularly organize protests, fearmonger on social media and disseminate disinformation.
To influence Sunday's elections and referendum, Russia has been paying Gagauz pensioners and public sector employees approximately $100 (€92) a month. To put this into perspective, the average monthly pension in Moldova is around $220 (€200).
The Kremlin has also launched a major intimidation campaign. Late last month, public buildings including the Supreme Court, the public broadcaster's headquarters and several state institutions were vandalized with paint.
The referendum requires a voter turnout of at least one-third to pass. Many have decided to stay away from the polls, however, as fears have been spread on social media that participating or voting "yes" in the referendum will mean war.
Information also recently circulated that the EU plans to send immigrants to Moldova, similarly to how Albania is used to keep migrants out. Both the EU and Moldovan leaders have denied these claims.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently visited Moldova, and urged everyone to vote in the elections and referendum.
On top of Russia's efforts in Moldova, articles have been published in the Western media arguing that Moldova isn't ready for the EU, and that accession would only cause problems.
Mart Viires, the Estonian Embassy in Bucharest's adviser in Chisinau, said that even if the referendum passes, no major unrest is expected in pro-Russian areas such as Gagauzia and Transnistria.
"Technically, it's possible – we've also seen reports in the media that a few hundred provocateurs were trained in Russia – so if something happens, it could happen more widely in Chisinau, or across the country," Viires said.
"Transnistria is rather likely to remain calm, since their exports and economy as a whole are dependent on Chisinau's goodwill," he continued. "As for Gagauzia, since they're primarily Russian-speaking and pro-Russian, it's possible we may hear some yelling from there. But it's rather difficult to imagine any major security incidents or destabilizing actions there."
According to the Estonian embassy adviser, Moldovan authorities have confirmed that even if the people vote "no" in Sunday's referendum, work toward EU accession will continue, with the goal of joining the EU in 2030.
As of Saturday, opinion polls indicated that 63 percent of Moldovans supported EU accession.
ERR asked Chisinau residents what they consider to be the pros and cons of the EU.
"I don't see any cons," said a woman selling her goods at a market. "I'm wholeheartedly in favor of the EU, because only together with someone can we make our way out of this state of sleep we've been in for the past 30 years already."
"I'm against it," said Vladimir. "We've been under the rule of the Turks and Russia. Enough! We have to stop this. Do we need to fall under the influence of yet another country now?"
There are 11 candidates running in Moldova's 2024 presidential elections. The current president, pro-European Maia Sandu, is the favorite according to polls, with 36 percent support.
The second most popular candidate is Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is running with the support of the Socialist Party of Moldova and polling at 10 percent support. The Socialist Party, led by former President Igor Dodon, is not only considered pro-Russian but also widely believed to be under direct Kremlin control.
Observers note that Sandu will likely earn a decisive win in the first round of elections. However, they also acknowledge that many people oppose her, and they could rally behind her opponent in the second round of elections, scheduled for early November. Thus, there is no clear outcome yet.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Aili Vahtla