Host Andres Kuusk recalled the assessment made by the National Audit Office during the summer, noting that the cost of Rail Baltica had quadrupled over seven years, putting the project's progress at risk.

Anvar Salomets clarified that the figures referenced are no longer current. "From Estonia's perspective, we are looking at a budget increase of about 70 percent, not a fourfold rise. And we are currently on schedule," he said.

The host asked how much of the budget is still missing as of today.

Salomets explained that the total cost of the first phase, the cross-border connection, which must be completed by 2030, is €3.1 billion. "To date, €1.35 billion has been allocated," he noted. "Is the remainder a shortfall? I would argue it is not a 'deficit' for the simple reason that, in order for the railway to be ready by 2030, we do not need the entire €3 billion on hand right now."

Salomets emphasized that Rail Baltica currently has sufficient funding to stay on schedule. "Next year's budget negotiations will indicate whether the timeline remains intact," he added.

The host pointed out that it remains uncertain how much funding will be allocated to the project in the European Union's next budget framework for 2028-2030.

"In this regard, the state has made, in my opinion, a reasonable assumption – that we will receive a similar amount to what was allocated in this period, around €1.3 billion. As for the interim period, which has also been highlighted – about €350-400 million that needs to be covered in 2026-2027 – preparatory work is currently underway to determine what the options could be," Salomets explained.

The host asked on what basis the cost-benefit analysis, which states that Rail Baltica is economically viable and estimates a positive net direct impact of approximately €6.6 billion, is founded.

"Rail Baltica is an economically viable project," Salomets said. "This means that every euro invested does not necessarily need to come back to the same account the next day but will return in some broader way. Whether through additional jobs, businesses, tourism, expanded travel opportunities for people or better access to services." This, according to him, is where the optimistic economic forecast stems from.

The host inquired about the origin of the figures presented in the cost-benefit analysis – 51.7 million passenger trips and 10.9 million tons of cargo by 2046.

Salomets explained that the cargo is already moving along the north-south axis and primarily originates from Scandinavia, a significant portion coming from Finland. "On the Via Baltica, there are around /.../ 40,000-50,000 trucks per month, so when we break this down into tonnage, we are looking at three to four million metric tons easy," he added.

According to Salomets, a high-speed train ticket to Riga would cost between €30 and €50 in current prices.

The host highlighted the skepticism expressed by the National Audit Office that trains would not be operating on the route by 2030.

Salomets acknowledged that the timeline is extremely tight. "All conditions must succeed 100 percent," he said. "Currently, we are on schedule in Estonia. Decisions made next year will either confirm this or shift it."

The host asked if Salomets agreed with the Latvian parliamentary investigative commission's assessment that all Baltic states are to blame for the problems with the Rail Baltic project.

"Looking back at the history — and I have been involved for quite some time — it's clear that too much time was spent on certain processes, both in planning and designing, and the work should have started earlier," Salomets said.

When asked about the total costs, Salomets stated, "The investment cost for Rail Baltica's first phase in Estonia is €3.1 billion. The cost of the trains themselves depends on how many the state orders. I would say that the price of one train set is €13 to €15 million. For the first phase, we could see four to five regional train sets." He also noted that there would be additional maintenance costs of €30 to €50 million annually, which would not necessarily have to be covered by the state.

According to Salomets, the project will pay for itself between 2040 and 2050.

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