December is traditionally the time to reflect on the past year. With three weeks remaining until 2025, hopefully, the most significant events and changes for this year are already behind us. What is the political constellation in Estonia as the fourth year of the third decade of the 21st century comes to a close?

Based on voters' party preferences, this year – regardless of how it ends – stands out as the most remarkable of at least the last two decades.

Between the 2003 and 2007 parliamentary elections, a phase shift occurred in Estonian politics, marked by the Reform Party emerging as the most dominant political force. Support for the Reform Party steadily rose to over a quarter of the electorate, securing roughly a third of the seats in the parliament. Election results have remained at this high level, and while the party's ratings have fluctuated somewhat between elections, no other party has consistently outpaced them.

This past year, however, the Reform Party's support has been notably and stably about ten percentage points lower than that of Isamaa. Such a situation has not been seen in polling data for two decades. Similarly, Isamaa's support reaching and maintaining such a high level is unprecedented. A third extraordinary development this year was the sharp decline in the Center Party's support, falling to levels not seen since the party's inception.

Throughout 2024, three political parties simultaneously and consistently found themselves in territories of support where they either had not been for a long time or never before. This is an exceptionally rare political alignment. It also means that not only these three parties but the entire system enters the new year with significant uncertainty and anticipation. Everyone has some reason to worry, but not excessively so.

The Reform Party's confidence might stem from the fact that, organizationally, it remains the strongest political party in Estonia. It has decades of experience in governing, strong allies within state institutions and society and a proven track record of bringing its votes home during election campaigns, even when voters are critical of its governance.

However, there is reason for concern as the party heads into elections as the prime minister's party. No other party will claim the prime ministerial position before the elections. Public approval of the government and the prime minister remains low. Over the past decade, being the ruling party at election time has often been a disadvantage rather than an advantage, unless specific factors like the war in Ukraine or election campaigns shift the narrative.

For Isamaa, its current high level of support seems almost accidental. It has neither been earned through particularly good nor bad actions. Instead, it reflects the failures of other parties, including the Reform Party, Eesti 200, the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) and the Center Party.

The decisions of the post-election government, the leadership change in the Center Party, EKRE's controversies and the prime minister's scandal involving business with Russia left many right-wing and nationally minded voters with seemingly no alternative but to support Isamaa. This duality brings both satisfaction and anxiety. On the one hand, it is encouraging that such a large shift in voter sentiment can occur without much effort. On the other, it is unsettling to rely on circumstances beyond one's control for political success.

The Center Party is not in the best position right now, though it seems to have passed through its worst phase. It has recovered from the absolute low point of its support in the spring, but it remains far from the levels it enjoyed a few years ago.

At the same time, the party might find some solace in the fact that this crisis could lead to a fundamental shift in its operational logic. It might help the party break free from its dependence on Russian-speaking voters – a trajectory that, if continued, would likely result in the party's eventual decline in the long term.

The Center Party now has an ideal opportunity to rethink and reinvent itself. This potential seems to have been recognized by Jaak Madison, who left EKRE to join the Center Party.

The Social Democrats have been on an upward trajectory over the past couple of years, which is undoubtedly a source of satisfaction for the party. They have not been this effectively led or in such a strong position for quite some time. Nevertheless, the party might worry about the sustainability of its platform, which leans heavily on a more interventionist state – both economically and in identity politics. Globally, such an approach seems poised to recede somewhat in the near future, with figures like Donald Trump in the United States likely influencing the international political climate.

EKRE has seen its support dip slightly over the past year compared to the levels it had become accustomed to in previous years. This is unlikely to bring joy. However, the party can take comfort in its solid core base of supporters. Moreover, EKRE continues to have the unique ability to articulate and highlight uncomfortable or unpopular issues that no other party is willing or able to address. This gives it a distinct and necessary role in Estonia's political landscape.

On the substitutes bench, there is one fresh and one tired party.

Parempoolsed (Right-wingers) are steadily working toward entering the main stage. Eesti 200, meanwhile, appears to be taking a break, seemingly contemplating how to bring its existence as an independent party to a close. Parempoolsed have opted for a strategy of positioning themselves as a purely ideological party, which might well help them achieve their goal of reaching 10 percent support.

Eesti 200, however, has little hope of resurgence as long as the public perception of the party is dominated by its leaders' maneuvering and antics, which likely fail to inspire confidence even among the youngest and least experienced voters.

Is the Estonian party system on the brink of something new as this year ends? That is a question we may be better positioned to answer a year from now. Considering how exceptional this year has been, it would not be surprising if it were.

Beyond party support dynamics, the overall atmosphere also seems conducive to another phase shift. Governance in recent times has come across as weak and aimless. There appears to be no grand vision, and major decisions seem beyond reach, while problems and challenges continue to pile up.

The image of Estonia as a particularly dynamic and successful state no longer holds true. Our economic situation – likely due in significant part to our own political decisions – has recently been among the worst in Europe. Our neighbors, Latvia and Lithuania, who we have traditionally regarded with a sense of superiority, are increasingly looking down on us instead.

In such a situation, it may only be a matter of time before a metaphorical "chainsaw" party, politician or movement emerges to shake things up. While Estonians' political inertia might delay this, it cannot prevent it entirely.

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