Merilo said in 2026 fewer conscripts could be accepted so active-duty personnel could develop and learn lessons from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The goal would be to boost the quality of conscripts going forward.

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) has discussed the topic with Merilo. "The main question is, what lessons can we take from the war in Ukraine and apply to the Estonian Defence Forces?" he said.

"One aspect clearly concerns the training of conscripts and the quality they achieve by the end of their conscription before moving to the reserves. The other aspect involves those conducting the training — the instructors. If we aim to improve the quality of both conscripts and instructors, something must be done. Exactly what needs to be done is what the commander and his team are currently working to determine," explained Pevkur.

That EDF instructors also need the opportunity to study was acknowledged by former EDF chief and MEP Riho Terras (Isamaa): "The problem is that the professional personnel of the Defence Forces find it difficult to further their education or even take a short break has been a persistent challenge over time."

Terras stressed that Merilo is better placed to know what the EDF needs than him.

"I think Merilo's understanding is that we have too few people training conscripts and conducting conscription, and they themselves also need training. Looking at the conscription cycle in Estonia, there is actually only one month available for this, and during that month, people should also have time to rest," Terras said, adding that this topic was already discussed during his term in office between 2011 and 2018.

Meelis Oidsalu, former undersecretary for defense planning and later defense readiness at the Ministry of Defense, said it is not appropriate to comment on the idea when so little is known about it. However, Merilo did not say anything new.

"Conscription does need to change; it has indeed been based on a single model for a long time," said Oidsalu. "Various models can be considered and explored, but some kind of reform would definitely benefit the system. However, it must serve military readiness and core operations."

The need for changes has also been pointed out before, he added. Former EDF commander Gen. Martin Herem also questioned the system.

"This is definitely the right direction to consider. There are still some complaints from conscripts about idling during their service, and giving real meaning to their work — such as being on combat duty with an actual weapon system — adds value to the experience," he noted.

This would also alleviate the problem of personnel shortages in the EDF. An increase in permanent readiness forces would ensure the EDF does not overly depend on the success of mobilization in situations where action may need to be taken within a few hours, he added

Impact on society must be monitored

At the same time, Oidsalu emphasized that when reforming conscription, it is important to ensure that the time commitment and burden on civil society do not increase excessively when combining conscription and reserve service. "The ministry will likely need to keep an eye on this," he noted.

Terras also highlighted the broader social impact of the changes: "If conscription is significantly reduced, it could create some ripples in society, especially for young people who have planned to join and want to go to the Defense Forces, for instance, with their classmates after graduating from high school. They will certainly start questioning how this will affect them."

"But once again, it is up to the commander of the Defense Forces to decide how he wishes to present this to the minister, and it is the minister's responsibility to assess the political implications this will ultimately have on the Defense Forces' needs and maintaining the reserve at the appropriate level," Terras said. "What is important is that the Estonian Defense Forces produce a sufficient reserve to ensure Estonia's security, and I believe that Gen. Merilo will base his proposals firmly on this," he added.

Russian aspect

Experts differed on the timing of the "gap year."

One defense expert, who requested anonymity, stressed the importance of monitoring the developments in the war in Ukraine, as a ceasefire there could free up Russian forces. In such a scenario, the EDF would likely not be able to take a break in their training and reserve preparation.

Pevkur made the same point: "We must, of course, also keep an eye on what is happening in the world of security around us. Whether and when to carry out the conscription reform depends largely on the surrounding security environment."

But Terras said those expressing such thoughts are unfamiliar with the organization of the EDF.

"This actually reflects the commentator's limited understanding of the Estonian system, because our concept is that the reserve is trained through conscription, but it is not the conscripts who fight, it is those in the reserve, and their size remains constant at any given time. Therefore, I do not see any direct connection here," he said.

Oidsalu agreed: "Today, conscripts are not seen as a force in permanent readiness to immediately defend the country. Rather, the majority of conscripts, depending on their training cycle, would go home or to the rear in the event of war, not to the front lines. In this sense, the number of conscripts in training does not directly correlate with the number of active-duty personnel available for immediate defense."

He pointed out it would not be appropriate to send a young person who is untrained or at the beginning of their training cycle to war: "Reservists who have completed their military service and have also later gained skills in reserve training should still go to war, so their survival rate will be higher."

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