Expert: Munich Security Conference failed to boost NATO's sense of cohesion

Speaking on ETV show "Terevisioon," security expert Martin Hurt discussed the messages that emerged from the Munich Security Conference. According to Hurt, the conference did not increase NATO's sense of cohesion.
On Sunday, former Estonia diplomat Harri Tiido said on ETV show "Ukraina stuudio" that U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to spread his radical right-wing agenda in Europe, and sees Europe as essentially a vassal state. Hurt was asked whether this also appeared to be evident at the conference in Munich.
"It could be interpreted that way," Hurt replied. "I think what was still somewhat unexpected was the rather strong speech by Vice President [J.D.] Vance, where he also touched on, in passing, the fact, of course, that Europeans need to make more of an effort and invest in their own security."
Hurt noted that most of the speech was focused on how to influence the German elections on February 23. "I think that was unexpected," he said.
According to Hurt, after Vance's speech, the speeches given by other Americans at the conference also gave the impression that Europeans are still not being taken into account. "You can make more of an effort here, but we don't really know if we're going to engage with you at all," he said.
Trump seems interested in a truce, but the question is what the implications will be, Hurt said.
"What his conditions are, we don't know – he doesn't talk about them with other countries. He might talk to President Putin, there are some things on the table. Not suggesting that Ukraine should join NATO there is nothing very new there, and the previous administration did not make any effort to get Ukraine into NATO quickly. But it is likely that part of the reason is that the U.S. sees the focus and the major security threats as instead being far away from us – China in particular. but then there is a desire to come to an agreement with Russia, so to speak."
"But what the repercussions will be for Europe, I don't think President Trump is really that interested in," he added.
Hurt said that in his view the Munich Security Conference did not increase NATO's sense of cohesion or coherence among allies.
Decision making in NATO is, after all, by consensus. The fact that one ally says it is against Ukraine joining NATO, in a sense means nothing more than it is against it at the moment, but as you know, a lot of these processes take a very long time, 10 to 15 years. This does not, of course, exclude the possibility that Ukraine may become a member of NATO in 10 or 15 years' time. This is not something that can be agreed with Putin, it really is up to NATO itself, plus of course the Ukrainian people themselves."
According to Hurt, what happened at the security conference could actually speed up the delivery of aid to Ukraine.
"I think it's going to kick things into high gear," Hurt said. "I don't quite agree that the European Union has been very slow to act and move. Rather we have seen that from some of the more important member states, I'm not talking about the smaller ones at the moment. I hope that the conclusion of many of the heads of state and government from this Munich conference will be that more needs to be invested and more needs to be visibly invested in strengthening security – not just talk the talk, but walk the walk and commit more resources to this."
Hurt was then asked whether the European Union would be represented at the much-discussed peace talks.
"I'm not at all sure of that, of course – neither the Russian president nor the U.S. president have any kind of positive attitude towards the European Union. At the same time, we can see that inviting all European countries to the table – it's just practically and physically relatively difficult to do."
Getting one EU representative to the table would be possible, said Hurt. "Otherwise, again, it weakens the West, so the alternative would be very poor."
Hurt was asked which EU representative the U.S. would accept as part of any peace negotiations.
"I think that although the European Union is very much disliked by the U.S., it could of course be the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs [Kaja Kallas]," Hurt said.
Whether an EU representative or even a representative of one of the EU countries will be invited to the talks, however, remains unknown.
"We can only speculate. We don't really know. It could just as well be a similar format to the Minsk agreements of the past, where they just had the heads of government of Germany and France." Hurt said. However, Germany is unlikely to have a head of government in place for some time after the February 23 elections, he added.
Hurt also noted that Trump could unveil a peace plan in the coming days or weeks, and that regardless of what the Americans do, it will ultimately be down to Russia and Ukraine that decide on ending the war.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Michael Cole
Source: "Terevisioon," interviewer Katrin Viirpalu