At a time when the current world order seems to be teetering on the brink of collapse, we still somehow have the energy to spare for domestic political power struggles.

And I'm not talking about the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), who, citing Jeffrey Sachs, are calling for friendlier relations with Russia and Russians while in the same breath slamming the voting rights restrictions bill for leaving too many Russians with the right to vote.

Rather, I'm referring to the fact that this week, several media outlets have been speculating about how much longer the coalition with the Social Democrats (SDE) and the Reform Party might last.

This speculation is based on Reform members' social media posts criticizing initiatives by SDE Minister of Regional Affairs and Agriculture Piret Hartman that clash with the Reform Party's goal of cutting down on regulations. These, in turn, follow pressure on Reform Climate Minister Yoko Alender, who was also criticized by the Social Democrats.

Eesti 200, too, took a critical swipe at the Social Democrats during Thursday's government press conference.

There's nothing unprecedented about this situation in and of itself. Few government coalitions in Estonia have lasted more than two years. And just that much time has passed since the last Riigikogu elections.

The government has changed in the meantime, with Kristen Michal taking over from Kaja Kallas as prime minister, but the makeup of the coalition itself remained intact. So the suggestion of a possible government reshuffle being floated is entirely predictable.

Whether these words will actually turn into deeds is another matter. Given the distribution of Riigikogu seats and the balance of power between its parties, forming a new and functional coalition seems unlikely.

Currently, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 hold a combined 50 seats in the Riigikogu. They can also likely count on support from unaffiliated MPs Alar Laneman and Maria Jufereva-Skuratovski, who have joined the Reform Party since the most recent elections.

That makes 52 mandates in the 101-seat Riigikogu. Meaning technically a majority, but such a slim one that it's unlikely to govern more effectively than together with the Social Democrats, who can be difficult on certain issues. And none of the opposition parties have expressed any willingness so far to cooperate with the government.

Thus, it's likely that the goal of this criticism isn't to break up the coalition, but rather to strengthen one's position within it, as well as make their worldview clear to their supporters. After all, the next local elections are coming up this October already.

Least to gain, most to gain

There's nothing inherently wrong with highlighting ideological differences. In coalition governments, compromises and some concessions are inevitable. It's useful for clarity's sake to occasionally indicate differences in government policy and the ideological aims of its member parties.

All the moreso considering that the Social Democrats have repeatedly done the same — criticizing decisions that might be unpopular with their voters and, as the prime minister was swapped out, demanding a greater say within the coalition by pointing to their increased representation in the Riigikogu.

In the long run, the party with the least to gain from the prolonged staging of a government crisis is the Reform Party, which has promised its voters to keep Estonia in good hands — something more relevant than ever in these turbulent times.

In the short term, however, ramping up this crisis may be useful for drawing attention to a new initiative through which the Reform Party can reassert its vision. It's just now in the best interests of the entire government coalition — but especially the Reform Party — to roll it out as quickly as possible.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!