Of course, it is clear to everyone that the reasons behind this process lie in the dire state of the Reform Party, not in the words or actions of the Social Democrats. Having worked alongside the Reform Party over the past three years in highly challenging security and economic conditions, the Social Democrats have made difficult compromises with their principles — just as the Reform Party has. These are the times we live in.

Naturally, we are prepared to adjust the government's political priorities — in fact, we ourselves proposed this to the Reform Party. This makes the prime minister's current public statements insincere and intended to obscure the real agenda. Let's break the situation down piece by piece.

Why is the Reform Party looking to get rid of us?

Under Prime Minister Kristen Michal's stewardship, support for the Reform Party has fallen to its lowest level in the past two decades.

In six months, Michal will face his first elections as party chairman, and going into them in this state is not an option — otherwise, the results would be just as disastrous for the party as the last European Parliament elections. That would pose an existential threat, as a poor showing in the local elections would jeopardize the outcome of the 2027 Riigikogu elections. If the current trend continues, the size of the Reform Party's parliamentary faction could shrink two to three times.

What is Michal's strategic goal?

His biggest strategic problem is Isamaa's soaring rating. Naturally, the most effective way to deflate [Isamaa leader Urmas] Reinsalu's balloon would be to bring him into the government. This is precisely what Michal wants most. The Reform Party has already invited Isamaa to join the government in place of the Social Democrats, something Michal inadvertently revealed in his own comment: "They [Isamaa] might need to get over this ratings-induced dizziness and decide what really matters to them — whether they want to be part of governing Estonia..."

However, the interests of Isamaa and the Reform Party are directly opposed. The Reform Party's goal is to win back voters who have drifted toward Reinsalu, while Isamaa aims to strip the Reform Party of its role as the leader of the center-right political sphere.

Reinsalu understands this perfectly, which is why he flatly rejected the Reform Party's overtures, stating that the real problem is Michal himself. He also remembers 2014, when the Reform Party ousted [Isamaa predecessor] IRL from the coalition and replaced them with the Social Democrats. Back then, our support was between 25 and 30 percent, yet within a year in government, we lost half of it.

What is Michal's Plan B after he is turned down?

It seems that the Reform Party has decided that a government reshuffle is necessary no matter what. And if the ideal solution with Isamaa isn't possible, they'll still throw out the Social Democrats and continue governing with Eesti 200 alone.

The Reform Party is likely calculating that a party whose support hovers between zero and the margin of statistical error won't interfere with the prime minister's political agenda. With the Social Democrats, debates are necessary — even ideological ones — but with Eesti 200, which is in the final act of its political existence, that won't be an issue.

At the same time, they can showcase a shift in direction. With the loosening of EU budgetary rules, parts of the tax package can be scrapped, defense spending can be increased and infrastructure investments can be boosted to stimulate the economy. Of course, these decisions could also be made with the Social Democrats, but that wouldn't provide the optics of a fresh start. Additionally, ministerial portfolios could be reshuffled to bring new faces into the spotlight — something parties always hope will boost their ratings.

Moving forward, there will be even more focus on the economy. And when economic growth eventually returns — as it always does — the Reform Party will pound its chest and claim that thanks to its statesmanlike decisions, the country is back on track. And, of course, they will say that all of this was only made possible because those troublesome Social Democrats were sent to the opposition.

Will it work?

We'll see how it plays out. In any case, this is a risky move, because before the next Riigikogu elections, the Reform Party has few alternatives to the slowly dying Eesti 200. That party will start to unravel by next summer at the latest, as its current Riigikogu members secure spots on other parties' candidate lists. As a result, Michal's government could end up as a minority government before the parliamentary elections or he may have to seek support for key legislation from the six-member Center Party faction led by Mihhail Kõlvart.

The hope that Isamaa would come to the Reform Party's aid six months or a year before the Riigikogu elections will only materialize if Isamaa's support drops significantly. It's possible — but not something to bet on.

What does this mean for Estonia?

We are in an extremely complex geopolitical moment, one that requires making weighty — possibly even existential — decisions. For that, we need the broadest possible political consensus, which would also help persuade society of the necessity of these choices. Instead, the prime minister's primary focus is on his own political survival — an understandable instinct on a human level, but one that undoubtedly undermines the legitimacy of future government decisions.

The combined support for the Reform Party and Eesti 200 is below 20 percent. In my political career, no government has ever had such low approval ratings.

I believe people see through this simplistic political maneuvering and will pass their judgment on prioritizing party interests over national interests. Just as they saw through the political games of the Center Party and Isamaa in the summer of 2022, when — under the guise of increasing child benefits — they attempted to restore a coalition of Isamaa, the Center Party and EKRE and were severely punished for it in the next elections. It is possible that Michal's maneuver will not weaken Isamaa but instead strengthen Reinsalu's position.

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