The was conducted from March 12 to 19, after the Social Democrats were expelled from the government on March 10. This means the survey should reflect voters' initial reactions to the events.

The results show Isamaa is still the most popular party, although its support has somewhat declined compared to the previous month falling from 29 percent to 25 percent.

Reform rating improved following the government change, rising from 14 percent to 18 percent. Last month marked a 20-year low for the party.

Voog said Isamaa lost supporters among voters with a more casual preference, who shifted their support to Reform.

"The changes are likely due to the government reshuffle, which resulted in a renewed coalition formed by two parties. The prime minister's party took a bold step, attracting more voters with less fixed preferences to the Reform Party," he noted.

The smaller coalition partner Eesti 200, did not benefit from the change. Its support remained at 3 percent, where it has sat since June 2024.

66 percent of non-Estonian voters support Center

The Center Party, ranking third, saw its rating rise to 16 percent. This is its highest score since September 2023 when Mihhail Kõlvart was elected party chairman.

The continued rise in the party's rating is mainly driven by changes among non-Estonian voters, where support for the party increased to 66 percent in March.

Only 6 percent of Estonian voters support Center. 

Meanwhile, support for the Social Democrats (SDE) among non-Estonian voters dropped from 16 percent to 10 percent.

There were no significant fluctuations in the support of other parliamentary parties compared to the previous survey.

EKRE's support was 14 percent (15 percent in February), while SDE, which was expelled from the government, had 12 percent support (13 percent in February).

Support for the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed rose to 8 percent in March, the highest level since June 2024.

The Greens, Koos, and the party Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid each had 1 percent support in March.

Total support for the coalition parties fell to 21 percent after SDE was removed from the government.

In March, 26 percent of respondents were unable to state a preference (the same as in February).

Support for the Center among Russian-speaking voters is growing

Among Estonian respondents, Isamaa had the highest support at 29 percent, followed by the Reform Party at 21 percent, EKRE at 16 percent, and SDE at 12 percent.

Support for the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed among Estonian respondents rose to 10 percent. Center was supported by 6 percent of Estonian respondents, and Eesti 200 by 3 percent.

Among non-Estonian respondents, the Center Party received 66 percent support. Their support in this group has grown rapidly over the past two months, from 51 percent in January to 62 percent in February, and now 66 percent in March.

Support for the Social Democrats in this voter group was 10 percent, Isamaa 7 percent, EKRE 5 percent, the Reform Party 3 percent, and Eesti 200 1 percent.

Koos, which has near-zero support among Estonians, had nearly 7 percent support among non-Estonian respondents.

The Center Party leads in Tallinn, with others closely behind

With this fall's local elections in mind, the largest municipality in Estonia saw the highest support for Center, with a 26 percent rating in March.

In Tallinn, voter preferences ranked the Reform Party second at 18 percent, followed by Isamaa at 16 percent, the Social Democrats at 15 percent, EKRE at 11 percent, and Parempoolsed at 8 percent. Eesti 200 had 3.6 percent support in the capital.

Center also had the highest support in Ida-Viru County, while Isamaa led in other regions of Estonia.

Kantar Emor surveyed 1,587 eligible voters across Estonia via online and telephone interviews from March 12 to 19. With this sample size, the maximum possible margin of error is ±2.2 percent.

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