Eesti 200 has just co-signed its third consecutive coalition agreement with the Reform Party after first entering office in spring 2023, only this time without the Social Democrats (SDE).

While support for Reform, which had also fallen in recent weeks, has started to rise, from 14 percent to 18 percent according to Kantar, since the ejection from government of SDE nearly two weeks ago, the same cannot be said yet of Eesti 200.

Speaking to a ratings special webcast following publication of the latest Kantar Emor monthly ratings, Voog pointed out that the future direction of support, Voog noted, depends on the new government ministers, to be announced on Saturday.

Also appearing on the webcast was ERR's Urmet Kook, who noted that the Reform Party has been picking up floating voters, mainly at Isamaa's expense.

Voog suggested that these are voters who do not have a clear worldview. "They decide based on who seems to be the strongest party at the moment," he said.

ERR's Anvar Samost, also taking part in the ratings special show, found that Reform Party had in fact regained voters who had previously switched to Isamaa.

"Maybe not all of them are entirely random, as these are those who were disappointed in the Reform Party. The Reform Party has pursued policies which go against its previous pledges. And now, voter hesitation has once again tilted in favor of the Reform Party," Samost said.

Voog stressed that a Reform Party supporter is certainly not that person who has any lack of confidence in the government or even its handling of the economy. "For them, the current situation is more or less good, and they feel economically secure," he said.

According to Voog, it is primarily older voters who have returned to the Reform Party, while the younger demographic tends to support parties with a more left-of-center perspective, especially SDE.

Kook inquired how much future support for Reform might be swayed by the individuals who get announced as ministers, tomorrow, Saturday.

Voog noted that the image of economic competence has been key to the Reform Party, even as this might have taken a battering in recent times. "The only way to improve it would be to bring someone from outside, into government," he suggested.

In other words, someone who was seen as a safe pair of hands, paraphrasing Reform's own catch-line.

According to Samost, Reform has already been working in this direction. "To some extent, Reform Party chair Kristen Michal, together with State Secretary Keit Kasemets, has resolved this concern. They have presented an economic advisory board which includes several economic experts. They have already started restoring trust within the business community," he said.

Samost added that in discussing deregulation and cutting bureaucracy, Reform is also on the right track in terms of restoring its rating. This also puts Isamaa in a difficult position, as it is hard for them to criticize these actions – close as they are to Isamaa's own line.

Simultaneously, Samost said he does not see the Reform Party's support rising to, for example, 25 percent, by this summer, a level it last enjoyed in the early fall of 2023.

On Eesti 200 continuing to bump along the bottom in terms of support, below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats at an election, Samost said that their best chance of reversing this trend would have been to have stayed out of government, and not renewed their agreement with Reform.

"Right now, they are continuing as the smaller partner in the Reform Party's government. Their support gap is sixfold," he noted.

"I think that the total support for the government does not depend on Eesti 200's support whatsoever," he added.

Despite its current low rating, Eesti 200 had performed when it mattered, at the 2023 election, and won 14 seats – now down to 13.

Voog concurred that Eesti 200 could indeed rise from the ashes, again only in opposition. "Being the smaller partner in the government, that is not viable," he said.

The issue is all the more pressing given the local elections are seven months away, often a bellwether for how things might go at the general election 18 months later.

Samost also said that although leading Eesti 200 figures Kristina Kallas and Margus Tsahkna have stated that the local election results are not a top priority for Eesti 200 and that the focus is on the next Riigikogu election in 2027, in reality, the locals are very important, and will put the party's future in question.

Kook pointed out an interesting nuance on support for the Center Party, which last year saw an exodus of prominent members.

This nuance was that Center's support has recently risen from 10 percent to 16 percent, primarily due to Russian-speaking voter support. This demographic, traditionally a bedrock of Center support but in recent years less significant, now provides two-thirds of Center's supporters.

According to Samost, the Center Party should thank SDE and especially former Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets, who has done a lot to push Russian-speaking voters back to Center and away from SDE – mostly over the handling of the status of the Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia.

Kook pointed out that for the Center Party, the risk is that non-ethnic Estonian voters end up not being as active on election day, support notwithstanding. "Among Estonian voters, support [for Center] is running at 6 percent. I don't see any good formula for boosting that. They don't have any top Estonian politicians who could speak on behalf of the party," Kook noted.

Samost observed that to achieve a strong result in Tallinn, one of its best-performing parts of the country, the Center Party must also pick up a significant number of native Estonian-speaking voters.

Kook said that while Center will definitely win the local elections in Tallinn, as in 2021 this will not be by a large enough margin to form a city government on its own.

"The situation will arise where the Center Party will have to form a coalition with someone, or a coalition will again be formed in opposition to the Center Party, which would mean that three or even four parties would need to be involved," Kook outlined.

The current Reform-SDE-Eesti 200-Isamaa rainbow coalition in Tallinn is just such an alliance.

Samost expressed surprise that MEP Jaak Madison, who is also a member of the Center Party having left EKRE last year, seems to have completely disappeared from Estonia's local media landscape.

All three participants on the show also evaluated non-parliamentary party Parempoolsed's 8 percent support.

According to Voog, the current high degree of volatility creates opportunities for a new player to emerge. "It is a chaotic situation where preferences are changing rapidly," he stressed.

In Samost's opinion, Parempoolsed's actions are also making the Reform Party uneasy.

"If anyone can position themselves to the right of the Reform Party, it is Parempoolsed," he noted – the wordplay works better in Estonian since "Parempoolsed" literally means "Right-wingers," with the party meaning to refer to economic policy.

This makes Parempoolsed a competitor to Reform and Eesti 200, as well as Isamaa; the party was formed in 2022, originally around a nucleus of ex-Isamaa members.

One issue which may hamper the party at this year's local elections, however, is that these polls are very personality-based, compared with the somewhat more party-based Riigikogu elections.

As Kook noted, this is an issue for Parempoolsed as while its branding is strong, its roster of big-hitting voter magnets is currently not so much.

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