Political scientist Tõnis Saarts said that up to now it has usually been the case that when the incumbent president is not running for re-election, not only have politicians started searching for candidates as early as possible, but given the process may head to the regional electoral college, even potential candidates start canvassing in the regions.

"It has usually been fairly clear that the election would most likely go to the electoral college, which is why during that period — in July and August — presidential candidates have actively toured municipalities to win the support of electoral college members," Saarts told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

That had been the case in 2016, when, for example, former justice chancellor Allar Jõks and former Riigikogu speaker Eiki Nestor both announced their intention to run as early as May of that year. Former foreign minister Marina Kaljurand and former prime minister Siim Kallas declared even earlier—in April—while Mailis Reps, another former government minister, was chosen as the Center Party's candidate in June. Several other credible candidates emerged at that time too, with all of them campaigning nationwide, to varying degrees.

Sociologist Juhan Kivirähk noted that none of those candidates ended up being president, however. "If everyone once again gets their own candidate, then nothing will come of the election. We remember that the process even broke down in the electoral college, after which Kersti Kaljulaid was hastily put forward," Kivirähk said.

So far, only the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) candidate Mart Helme has been introducing himself at public gatherings. Helme, founder of EKRE, was put forward by his party as a presidential candidate back in early May.

Saarts said the parties are leaving the search for candidates unusually late this time not due to negligence, but for the reason that they want to avoid the risk of proposing party political candidates.

"The coalition senses that it does not have enough support to put forward its own candidate — for example, the Reform Party. Instead, the focus is on finding a compromise candidate, while it seems the opposition simply did not have a strong candidate around whom it could rally its support," Saarts went on.

Political parties are also unwilling to take major risks ahead of the Riigikogu elections next March, Saarts noted. In 2006, the presidential election was similarly followed a few months later by the Riigikogu elections. The Riigikogu rounds of voting on the head of state failed to elect a president; ahead of the electoral college vote, both Arnold Rüütel and Toomas Hendrik Ilves campaigned extensively, and this, Kivirähk said, had an impact on the Riigikogu election results a few months later.

"Toomas Hendrik Ilves became president by just one vote above the required minimum. At the time, that stand-off continued, so that in the following elections the Reform Party and the Center Party finished with very similar results, even as the Reform Party won the 2007 election," Kivirähk noted.

According to Saarts, the outcome of the presidential election at the Riigikogu this time around hinges on the opposition Isamaa's strategy. If that party wants to shine a light on weaknesses in the Reform-Eesti 200 coalition and the Social Democrats (SDE), then the vote would likely go to the electoral college. SDE is in opposition but is siding with the governmental parties on Ülle Madise as a candidate for president.

"That does not mean it ultimately would not back the same candidate it would have backed in parliament. It simply adds a layer of political rhetoric and political theater," Saarts continued.

At the last presidential election in 2021, the expectation too had been that the process would pass to the electoral college. However, Alar Karis ran unopposed and was elected at the second Riigikogu ballot after the Reform Party and Center cooperated.

Karis stated in midsummer he would not be seeking re-election, making this the second election in a row where the incumbent had not run again despite being eligible to.

A total of 68 or more votes at the 101-seat Riigikogu is required to elect a new president at the Riigikogu. If three rounds of voting fail to achieve this, the process moves to the electoral college—which convenes in Tallinn and is made up of representatives of both local and national legislatures.

In 2016 this stage drew a blank too, and the Riigikogu's Council of Elders was given the final say on a candidate, Kaljulaid, who was duly elected at the Riigikogu in October.

Candidates must give their consent to run before being nominated, and nominations open on August 21, closing on August 24. The Riigikogu voting rounds take place September 2-3.

You can read more about the potential candidates here.

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