The results of the 2019 Riigikogu elections have made one thing clear — the current Centre, Social Democratic (SDE) and Isamaa government coalition cannot remain in power, as its three parties no longer have enough votes between them to maintain a majority in the 101-seat Riigikogu.
Two possible scenarios are considered most likely: either the Reform Party and Centre will form a government coalition, or Estonia will see a return of the old triumvirate of Reform, Isamaa and the SDE.
Another possible option is for a coalition to be formed against the Reform Party, which would be Jüri Ratas' only chance at remaining in power as prime minister as well as the Conservative People's Party of Estonia's (EKRE) only realistic shot at being part of the next government.
Possible coalition options, accounting for EKRE and the SDE's refusal to work together:
Reform + Centre: 34 + 26 = 60 seats
According to political logic, the fewer parties involved, the simpler it will be to agree on things. At the same time, it cannot be forgotten that these two parties were the biggest rivals in the elections, and it may be difficult for Jüri Ratas to serve as minister in a government headed by Kaja Kallas.
Reform + Isamaaa + SDE: 34 + 12 + 10 = 56 seats
The old triumvirate. Kaja Kallas considers this coalition most likely, but as demonstrated by Jürgen Ligi's appearance on Vikerraadio on Sunday night, there are many among Reform's ranks who still haven't gotten over Isamaa and SDE abandoning Reform and forming a government with the Centre Party.
Should this option play out, it will be largely at the expense of the SDE and Jevgeni Ossinovski. Isamaa will get by with a lighter punishment, as Margus Tsahkna, the party's chief architect of the 2016 government upset, is now a member of a different party.
Centre + EKRE + Isamaa: 26 + 19 + 12 = 57 seats
This is the only option that would allow for Jüri Ratas to remain prime minister, which would be of interest to the Centre Party. This is also the most realistic scenario for EKRE to join the government. This scenario hinges first and foremost on Isamaa and its chairman Helir-Valdor Seeder.
Reform + EKRE + Isamaa: 34 + 19 + 12 = 65 seats
A 100% right-wing government, warned against by Social Democrat Indrek Saar. At the same time, both Kaja Kallas and her father Siim Kallas have ruled out cooperation with EKRE. This option will likely only be considered if the alternative is Reform being left out of the government.
Reform + EKRE: 34 + 19 = 53 seats
Possible in theory, fairly unlikely in practice.
Editor: Aili Vahtla