Historian: Navalny's death will not be a turning point for Russia

Terrorizing dissidents in Russia is nothing new and the death of opposition politician Alexei Navalny will not lead to new protests, historian David Vseviov said on Friday.
Navalny's death will not be beneficial for President Vladimir Putin in terms of the upcoming elections. "This is already martyrdom. It's one thing to have a person imprisoned, it's another thing to take them so far that they leave this life," Vseviov said.
An imprisoned Navalny did not pose a threat to Putin, the historian said.
There is nothing new about the systematic terrorizing of dissidents in Russia.
"These experiences are long. If you think about [Leon] Trotsky's position in the first half of the 1920s – he was the biggest supporter of the revolution and 10 years later he was equated with Satan. That's how the mechanics and the mechanisms have worked," he told ERR.
Additionally, most of Navalny's supporters have already left Russia or are also imprisoned, Vseviov pointed out.
But the regime's consistent terrorization of Navalny showed he was still perceived as a threat.
"When you exorcise something, you have to do it continuously. Just like in Trotsky's case – you can widen it to a larger group of people. It was enough that somebody had once collaborated with him or had corresponded with him. So it was necessary to keep doing this constantly," said Vseviov.
It is no longer conceivable that someone would step into the role of opposition leader in Russia, he believes. This was illustrated by anti-war politician Boriss Nadezhdin's failed attempt to get on this year's list of presidential candidates.
"But again, if there's the slightest chance that your move cannot legally be labeled as oppositional, then people will come out, people will react," said Vseviov.
"The pictures of the queues to sign in support of Nadezhdin were impressive. Of course, [they were] only in major cities and centers, but still," said Vseviov.
Navalny's death is not a turning point in Russia that will drive people to hold public protests, the historian said. He suggested a trigger for this could be another mobilization "or something similar".
Vseviov said that authoritarian systems only appear to be strong. "This is the peculiarity of authoritarian systems – they can collapse in an instant. They appear to be monolithic and strong. It's all a sham and a bluff," he said.
Liik: Navalny will be a moral hero

Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said exactly how Navalny died is not important because he was still killed by the regime either way.
The Russian authorities have suggested he died from a blood clot, but this could have been the result of the brutal treatment he received in prison, Liik said. Navalny was imprisoned four years ago and has spent repeated stints in solitary confinement.
Liik thinks it is rather unlikely the Putin regime would have murdered Navalny at this time.
"In Russia, there is a sense of a kind of repressed tension in society that can manifest itself in somewhat unpredictable ways at times. Certainly, any such thing creates certain risks for the Kremlin," she explained.
"On the other hand, I do not think that the risks are now so high that they cannot be controlled. I think that the so-called elections will generally still take place as they have been planned," added Liik.
Liik met Navalny once in 2016. She said he was nicer than expected, but a rather weak politician.
"As a person, he was more pleasant than I expected, because at that time there was quite a lot of talk about him being a racist and all that. He was not. He was really a very normal and very nice person, not some kind of scary fanatic. But as a politician, again, he was weaker than I expected. Clearly, he was a one-issue politician, his issue was corruption. Beyond that, his message was morally right, but weak on substance," she said.
The senior researcher we should not only focus on Navanlny's contradictions.
"He is accused of taking part in the Russian marches [far-right rallies – ed.], he is accused of failing to condemn the annexation of Crimea swiftly and radically enough. However, I see it all as part of a journey, that the Russian marches were in their own time, that Navalny was much younger, that Russia was different, that the political agenda was different. I don't think he would do anything like that today. He certainly would not march with Russians who justify killing people in Ukraine. And the same with Crimea, he, I think, just acknowledged the fact – for any Russian politician to give up Crimea would be a very difficult decision. But that does not mean it will never happen. So I would not emphasize his controveries in his case. He was just a person who, after all, started out as a lawyer, started out as a small shareholder in a company, and from there, along that path, ended up in big politics. Of course, in the process, he himself also learned a lot and developed and made very difficult choices," Liik outlined.
Navalny will become a martyr, she believes.
"He remains such a moral hero in history, a man who went into battle against a great evil with no great hopes, remained true to himself to the end, and died. I think he will be a martyr in Russian history. If he had survived, if he had still returned to active politics, perhaps this historical image would have been different. But now it will continue to be very pure and bright," Liik said.
Troitski: Navalny's life in prison was agony

Navalny's life after recovering from poisoning and returning to Russia was not very easy, said journalist Artemi Troitski told Friday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".
"He was living under virtual torture. He was constantly put in some special places – I do not even know what to call them – where it was very cold. He was starved and not allowed to communicate. In general, it was torture. It was torture that lasted for over 1,000 days," he said.
Troitski believes small public gatherings will take place in Russia after Navalny's death.
"I think there will be some rallies. There will be arrests and detentions and so on. I think all of this will happen in the next few days. I think it is already starting tonight. I do not think it's going to be mass [protests], because the Russian people are just extremely frightened," he said.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Helen Wright