Raik said that initially there had been doubts among some Western pundits as to whether the specific timing of Navalny's death was deliberate. However, there are now signs suggesting that it may have been planned by Putin to occur precisely now.

"Perhaps the simplest explanation is that [Putin] felt the need to show he was doing what he wanted to do, what he felt he needed to do, and that nobody could stop him. It was a message to the West, which has recently again shown signs of weakness –  the U.S. is unable to make decisions regarding continued support for Ukraine and Europe is unable to make up for that U.S. aid in the short term. And domestically, yes, there are elections coming up. Navalny did not pose any direct threat to him at this point, but he still wanted to get rid of a troublesome person, whose activities have [previously] been very disruptive to him," Raik said.

According to Raik, Navalny was the most prominent opposition leader in Russia.

"It could also be said that Navalny has been the only serious competitor to Putin in recent years. If he had been allowed to stand in the previous elections, he would still have posed a pretty serious challenge to Putin. So, in that sense, it is very significant that he has now been eliminated, and there is no sign of any other opposition leader of equivalent stature emerging," Raik said.

Raik does not expect mass protests to erupt in Russia in light of Navalny's death.

"We will see in the long term whether it was a mistake for Putin to kill Navalny, if at some point people's discontent may grow to the point where it will start to find a way out. But I don't think that's an issue for the foreseeable future," Raik said.

Support for Ukraine is coming, but slowly

Raik also said that the most important topics during the Munich Security Conference were how Europe can increase its support for Ukraine as well as ways to contribute more to its own defensive capabilities. She admitted that while these issues have been under discussion for a long time, concrete steps to realize them have been slow.

"There have been some positive signals that Europe is really pulling together. Just before the Munich Security Conference, security agreements were signed between Germany and Ukraine as well as between France and Ukraine. These were added to the earlier UK-Ukraine agreement, in January. /.../ These agreements keep coming and are important in the sense that they promise long-term support for Ukraine. And both Germany and France are substantially increasing military assistance for Ukraine this year. On top of that, there has been the Danish pledge to provide additional artillery or most likely, to give away all of its artillery," Raik explained.

Czechia has also taken the initiative to provide Ukraine with as many as 800,000 artillery shells, in addition to EU's 2023 initiative to supply one million.

"The one million artillery shells initiative was launched a year ago, but it has become clear by now that the European Union will not be able to provide Ukraine with one million shells in a year. The hope is that this plan will come to fruition by the end of the year, so with a degree of delay. But the Czech plan, as I understand it, is something more. with the idea being to get ammunition from other, third countries," Raik said.

The security expert added that support for Ukraine is continuing to arrive gradually, though unfortunately at a slow pace. "However, the trend is positive," she said.

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