Lux Express operates three daily departures from Tartu to Riga two of which start at the Narva border crossing point. Ingmar Roos, head of Estonian business for Lux Express, said that the company's experience suggests demand for a train link between Tartu and the Latvian capital is questionable.

"On average, we had 12-15 passengers per trip between Tartu and Riga throughout last year. Traffic between Tartu and Riga largely came from the St Petersburg-Tartu-Riga line, counting passengers from St Petersburg, Narva and Jõhvi. But between Tartu and Riga, there were no more than 10-15 passengers per departure on average. Based on this, it [launching a train link between the cities] comes off slightly utopian," Roos commented.

Indrek Laineveer, in charge of railroads at the Ministry of Climate, said that passenger carrier Elron estimates initial demand at a little over 40 passengers per departure.

"This [estimate] is based on [passengers from] Valga and Riga. It does not factor in potential intermediate stops, which we cannot pledge today as it would need to be confirmed by the Latvian side," Laineveer said to suggest that it is possible the line will see more passengers in the future.

The train could reach Riga in the evening and return to Tartu the next morning this year. Once the Tallinn-Tartu line gets new electric trains in 2025, existing diesel trains can be used to complement the Tartu-Riga line to have two daily departures, Laineveer said.

"Two to three cars, no more. Considering that we're aiming for an average of 40 daily passengers, longer trains wouldn't make sense. But it also depends on whether there will be additional stops," he explained.

Even if Elron manages to hit its target, Ingmar Roos still doubts the sensibility of subsidized train transport. The Climate Ministry estimates preparations for the new line to run around €300,000, with monthly subsidies of €100,000 once it is launched. Having two trains go back and forth between Estonia and Latvia from next year would require €2 million in annual subsidies.

Roos said that even two daily departures would not create all-day coverage, more so as the train's final stop would be in the Riga city center, while what matters to passengers is getting to the airport.

"We cannot really understand such forceful efforts to have a train between Tartu and Riga, especially in the current fiscal situation. Lux Express could operate eight connections between Tartu and Riga, and the Riga Airport, both ways and without having to charge for tickets for the €2 million that is currently being planned for just two trains," he pointed out.

But Indrek Laineveer said that the idea of trains is not to compete with buses but to get people to switch their cars for public transport.

The Tartu-Riga line cannot be launched before August according to the current timetable, Laineveer said, adding that further delays could postpone the launch to October. "We only have verbal agreements in place today, while we still need written contracts, and you never know what the Latvian side might want."

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