"There is a decline in activity on the Russian side. It is tied to major frontline losses on the one hand and the loss of A-50 early warning and control aircraft and fighter jets on the other. Russia needs to adjust its offensive a little. That does not mean things aren't happening at all, and Russia remains very active around Donetsk," Saks said.

The expert suggested that the Russian army has not had the strength for major offensive operations in previous months. "They tried to create the premise for it, but it hasn't worked."

Saks also said that Ukraine has received new ammunition from somewhere. "We don't know whether they are producing it themselves, toward which they are making great efforts, or whether it came from somewhere else. Has the Czech project started yielding something? There is no clarity on that at this time," he noted.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has no grand military achievements to show for the mock presidential elections in Russia. Saks said that Putin's only campaign speech to the Federation Council was window dressing that touched briefly on various issues but lacked a strategic line.

But this lack of military achievement is not likely to sway the Russian people at elections. "Rather, the president will himself reevaluate the situation and make new plans," Saks suggested.

He added that the Russian leadership cannot afford to keep burning through troops at the recent pace much longer.

Ukraine is busy building defensive structures should it prove impossible to mount a counteroffensive, Saks also said.

The expert said that Ukraine has not been able to plan a counteroffensive for lack of resources. It is the result of support from the U.S. falling off and weapons deliveries not materializing. "There are shortcomings in terms of quality here. But unlike in previous years, noise is not made around every single shipment," Saks suggested.

"I cannot guess as to whether the Ukrainians will attempt a counteroffensive. Right now, it rather seems they are trying to force the Russians to leave. Or that they are fighting strategically so to speak. Especially in the south and in Crimea where the adoption of F-16 fighters could prove more effective because Russia is having clear problems supplying and supporting its troops," Saks said.

But the stalemate is only seeming, Saks noted. "It is an impasse only upon first glance. In truth, both sides are suffering irrecoverable losses, especially as concerns human resources. Events that affect the course of the war are happening."

Using convicted felons will not take place on a large scale, Saks suggested. "That is not where Ukraine will focus its mobilization," he said.

Pope Francis said in a recent interview that Ukraine should negotiate and end to the war with Russia.

Saks described the pope's phrasing as extremely regrettable and suggesting Ukraine should surrender. "Vatican officials later tried to soften it, but it didn't get much better. It shows that the head of the Roman Catholic Church is dreaming of a different kind of world, one that does not mix with reality," Rainer Saks remarked.

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