Toomas Hendrik Ilves welcomes Emmanuel Macron change of line on Ukraine

Former president of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves has spoken approvingly about French head of state Emmanuel Macron's recent statements implying NATO member states could deploy personnel to Ukraine, and also of Macron's concept of a European strategic autonomy.
Ilves, president of Estonia 2006-2016, expressed support for sending soldiers from NATO countries to Ukraine, at least in non-combatant roles, such as in demining, or in training and advisory roles, and representing somewhat of a sui generis deployment.
Speaking to Vikerraadio show "Välistund" Monday, Ilves said it: "Had been particularly pleasant to read Macron's recent statements, considering the position he held to September last year, when, just six months after the extent of the butchery in Bucha had been revealed, he was still criticizing people in Central and Eastern Europe as 'warmongers' and 'hawks'."
"This was quite interesting to read at the time," the former president continued.
"However, he now has apparently had a change of heart and has likely earned a certain amount of respect as a result, given these same CEE countries, as well as the Nordic nations, had been skeptical of Macron's call to create strategic autonomy in Europe. In other words, that Europe must also be able to defend itself but without the US," Ilves added.
Ilves called to mind that while, earlier, Estonia and other countries in the region had been skeptical of Macron's call for strategic autonomy, this is now something that needs to be considered and also acted upon, given what may transpire after the US elections is not yet clear – particularly if former incumbent Donald Trump is re-elected.
Whereas Macron was once eyed with a certain amount of apprehension in the region due to his efforts to communicate with the Russian leadership early on in the war, that has now all changed, Ilves said.
"The fact that he has changed his stance on Ukraine, as I said, makes this concept [of strategic autonomy] much more acceptable. If France were to be a security leader in Europe, yet with a cordiality towards Russia as a background, this would naturally cause great uneasiness in the CEE countries in particular. But once we can see that France thinks much more along the lines that we do, then I believe that several countries will be ready to go along," Ilves continued.
"From our side, we have all wanted to do more for Ukraine. We've provided them with weaponry, we've given them money, but if you consider what kind of military aid we can give [further] then when we don't go directly into combat, which would already be problematic legally, not to mention politically, speaking, then still the armed forces of Latvia or Estonia, or Poland of France, could provide support in logistics, mine clearing, or also why not with missile programming."
"Why should we not do this, while at the same time Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine, committing out all the crimes against humanity that they have so far done and will continue to do. In my opinion, presence in a non-combatant role would be totally conceivable, and practically unique."
Ilves: Sweden's entry into NATO the most significant geopolitical change since the Cold War
Ilves also noted that with Sweden joining NATO, the Baltic Sea has become the alliance's "internal sea," also referred to sometimes as a NATO lake. Of all the nations with shorelines on the Baltic, only one, Russia itself, is not a member of the alliance now.
"Following the period 1989-1991, this represents the most major geopolitical change ever. We have had seen gradual NATO expansions, but geo-strategically turning the Baltic Sea into an almost complete NATO inland sea is still a very major change," the ex-president stressed.
Ilves said this also reduces the risk that, were Russia to cut off the so-called Suwalki gap, the Baltic states would get completely cut off from other NATO members.
Ilves was referring to the roughly 65-kilometer stretch of Lithuanian-Polish border between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, and Russia's ally Belarus.
Ilves also highlighted the strategic importance, due to its location, of the Swedish island of Gotland, known in Estonian as Ojamaa. Were that to fall to a hostile power, it would allow it to in effect bring most Northern European capitals, i.e. Oslo, Copenhagen, Berlin, Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn and Helsinki, under its control – for instance via the S-300 air defense systems, which Russia has.
"This would mean aid to [the Baltic states] via air would be impossible," Ilves went on.
Internal US politics in election year and the sway that will have on support for Ukraine, and the attitude of many Western European countries towards Russia, were also discussed at length on Monday's edition of "Välistund." Ilves said that the Western European attitude to Russia is anti-empiricist and not based in reality, but rather upon wishful thinking.
Former president Ilves also gave this interview in English to the European Resilience Initiative Center in which many of the same topics are covered (please note the interview was conducted prior to the formal accession of Sweden to NATO).
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Välistund,' interviewer Peeter Kaldre.