Kantar Emor ratings: Changes in Tallinn have led to support drop for SDE, Isamaa

Support for coalition party the Social Democrats (SDE) and opposition party Isamaa have both fallen recently, according to one survey.
The poll, commissioned by ERR and conducted by Kantar Emor, found that whereas in March, SDE was the most-supported of the three coalition partners, at 18 percent, this month the party's rating had fallen to 14 percent.
An even more notable drop has been seen among voters of non-Estonian ethnicity, meaning primarily native Russian-speaking citizens of Estonia, where SDE's support nearly halved, from 17 percent to 9 percent, between March and April.
Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog attributed the situation both with SDE and Isamaa to recent power changes in Tallinn, though noted it is still too early to tell.
Voog said: "Most of the survey's work was conducted before the Sunday council session where Jevgeni Ossinovski (SDE) was confirmed as the new Tallinn mayor, so the longer-term implications of this event will only become clear in May."
"SDE's participation in the no-confidence vote against Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) and the breakdown of the Center-SDE coalition apparently had a significant impact on SDE's ratings among respondents of other nationalities, and this impact led to a fall."
Another episode which may have negatively impacted SDE's rating among respondents of other nationalities to the Kantar Emor survey concerns the recent statements by SDE leader Lauri Läänemets, in his capacity as interior minister, on the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (MPEÕK).
Isamaa rating fall benefits Reform
As for Isamaa, its fall in support follows a long period of growth in the aftermath of the election of Urmas Reinsalu as party leader last summer; it has also played into Reform's hands more than any other party.
While Isamaa remains most-supported party overall, according to Kantar, the gap between it and Reform is just three percentage points.
Reform has also overtaken the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), which is four percentage points behind Isamaa in the ratings.
Isamaa's support this month stood at 22 percent in April, down from 27 percent in February and March.
Voog said that this decline was influenced by strong media criticism of their rigid positions during the Tallinn coalition negotiations.
"For a party aspiring to be in the mainstream, this represented excessive extremism," Voog said.
"Isamaa's weakened position, in turn, helped to somewhat restore the Reform Party's rating," Voog added.
Reform has risen from fourth place in the ratings in March, on 15 percent, to second place and 19 percent this month.
While EKRE has fallen behind Reform, it has still seen a rise in support according to Kantar; from 16 percent in March to 18 percent in April and a high for 2024 so far.
The Center Party, which exited office in Tallinn in late March, has not seen its rating change much according to Kantar. The party polled at 14 percent, on-par with SDE.
Among its core demographic, Russian-speaking voters, the party remains strong, with a 54-percent approval rating, in comparison with just 3 percent among native Estonian-speaking respondents to the survey.
Meanwhile both coalition party Eesti 200 and non-parliamentary party Parempoolsed were bang on the 5 percent threshold required to win seats in any electoral district, Kantar Emor found in April.
The Estonian Greens polled at 2 percent, and the EÜVP at 1 percent.
The combined Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition rating was 38 percent in April, significantly lower than the combined support for the opposition parties: Isamaa, EKRE and the Center Party, who together polled at 54 percent, Kantar Emor says.
Ratings with 'cannot say' respondents included
The proportion who answered "don't know" rose by two percentage points between March and April, to 26 percent.
When taking into account the "don't know" respondents, support for Isamaa in April stood at 17 percent (down from 21 percent in March). Both the Reform Party and EKRE polled at 14 percent each (up from 12 percent each in March).
Support for SDE using this methodology was 11 percent in April (down from 13 percent in March). The Center Party's was unchanged at 9 percent by this metric, though Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed both fell below the 5 percent threshold if undecided respondents were included, at 3.5 percent each.
This is significant in that there is no "don't know" option on polling day at Riigikogu elections.
The new Tallinn coalition consists of SDE, Reform, Eesti 200 and Isamaa.
One of the main sticking points in the latter period of the coalition negotiations concerned voting rights, more specifically stripping these from third country nationals, a policy which Isamaa seemed to stick to fairly doggedly even as it is a national and constitutional matter.
The next elections in Estonia are to the European Parliament, on June 9. These elections tend to be more personality- than party-based, so far as voter preferences go.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte