Tõnis Saarts: Isamaa aiming for the heavyweight title

Urmas Reinsalu is trying to convince right-wing voters that Isamaa are the most competent economic experts, the most patriotic force and the ones who decide what gets discussed both downtown and on Toompea Hill, Tõnis Saarts finds in Vikerraadio's daily comment.
The saying "punch above your weight" marks a situation where a lightweight contender goes up against a heavier opponent and tries to knock them out. This has characterized the Isamaa party in Estonian politics lately, and they've done it with some success.
Tallinn's rocky coalition negotiations may have left the impression that Isamaa was trying to stall and present ultimatums simply to attract attention, and that limiting the voting rights of Russian citizens is the number one priority of its voters and members. But that would be an overly simplified treatment.
Isamaa, which has become by far the most popular political party in the polls, was unlikely to need any more media attention than the coalition talks already provided. What is more, no recent study has found the question of restricting voting rights to be something Estonians prioritize over the economy, taxes and a Ukrainian victory.
No, the struggle was over something far bigger. Isamaa are trying to become the dominant force on the right wing and put the Reform Party in its place by going after its core symbolic values. Because Isamaa is still rather a lightweight in terms of Riigikogu and Tallinn City Council seats, the struggle needs to take place on the imagological level.
Looking at the economic situation and the government's relative ineptitude in solving fiscal and tax matters, the reputation of the most economically savvy party has already shifted from Reform to Urmas Reinsalu's party. But they also needed to show that Isamaa is the most decisive and patriotic party when it comes to the Russian issue.
Because Isamaa is not involved in Estonia's ruling coalition, it cannot effectively score points by standing up to the Kremlin in international politics. Therefore, the party had to opt for the second best strategy of putting the local Russians in their place.
The Reform Party's hands are tied as their national coalition with the Social Democrats is keeping them from taking the reins on the issue. Isamaa have the squirrels (Reform Party mascot – ed.) over a barrel, and everyone now knows that Isamaa is the boldest and most patriotic party that is about to strip the voting rights of aggressor state citizens.
But how? Isamaa scored another and much more practical victory at the Tallinn talks. They succeeded in rolling their Trojan horse to the courtyard of Stenbock House (the seat of the Estonian government – ed.) by complementing the Tallinn coalition agreement with a clause that seemingly obligates the government to make progress in this matter. Isamaa has secured itself a lever for affecting the national government from Tallinn.
It would be naive to believe that an experienced politician like Urmas Reinsalu would fail to make use of said lever. One can already imagine Isamaa making demands, for example, regarding tax policy, before the next local elections.
Reinsalu is trying to convince voters on the right wing that it is Isamaa, not Reform, who are the most competent economic experts, the most patriotic and the ones who ultimately decide what gets discussed in downtown and even on Toompea Hill.
But even as Isamaa's ambition seems to have no end, the plan has its weaknesses.
First, this image of economic competence will last only as long as the party comes to power and will be forced to reckon with the stark fiscal reality themselves.
Second, while Isamaa may try to grab the title of biggest patriot from the Reform Party, it will need action to hold on to it later. Let us recall that the Reform Party only became the first choice of patriotically-minded citizens after the Bronze Night. I wonder what "Russian revolt" will Isamaa be putting down?
Thirdly, we have no reason to believe the current coalition will afford Isamaa the chance to use their Trojan horse in the recent manner again. Isamaa is not the only home of experienced and cunning politicians.
Finally, while Isamaa has 28 percent and Reform 17 percent of the vote presently, true strength is revealed in moments of crisis. Support for Isamaa came precariously close to the election threshold (of 5 percent – ed.) under previous leader Helir-Valdor Seeder, while that of the Reform Party never dropped below 15 percent even during [Prime Minister Kaja Kallas'] eastern transports scandal. That is a different of three times!
While punching above one's weight requires an impressive show of force also in politics, it may not be enough to become a real heavyweight.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski