The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) found that 16.1 percent of eligible voters support Marina Kaljurand (SDE), 13.9 percent back Urmas Paet (Reform), while 11.2 percent pledged for Jaak Madison (EKRE).

These three are all sitting MEPs.

By party, the Social Democrats are most supported at 22 percent according to Norstat, followed by the Reform Party at 20.1 percent, and Isamaa, who polled at 17.6 percent.

The survey polled 3,500 eligible voters, who were asked which candidate they would pick if the European Parliament elections were to be held next Sunday.

The next three candidates after Kaljurand, Paet and Madison were: Riho Terras (Isamaa) at 8.3 percent, Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) at 6.2 percent, and Martin Helme (EKRE), who polled at 4.3 percent according to Norstat.

Of these latter three, Terras is a sitting MEP while Helme and Kõlvart have never sat at the European Parliament.

Commenting on the results, Martin Mölder, associate professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies said it is "almost certain," based on these results, that Jaak Madison, Urmas Paet, Riho Terras, Mihhail Kõlvart, and Marina Kaljurand will be elected to the European Parliament from Estonia.

However, since Kõlvart has announced he would relinquish his mandate if he won one, Jana Toom will take his place.

Toom is also a sitting MEP, from the Center Party.

"Thus, five of Estonia's seven seats are allocated and will likely go to the current MEPs," Mölder said.

"The real electoral battle will thus revolve round who will get the remaining two seats. There is quite a bit of uncertainty and competition both between and within parties," Mölder added.

"Four parties and six candidates are vying for these two seats. Particularly bearing in mind the often unexpected twists in European Parliament elections, EKRE and Isamaa, as well as SDE and the Reform Party, all have a considerable chance of securing one of these two seats," he went on.

For EKRE and SDE, the decision on which candidates would take a potential second seat is straightforward, Mölder said.

"EKRE would have its leader, Martin Helme, take a second seat, and SDE would do the same for Sven Mikser. There is no internal competition within these two parties for these second seats," Mölder added.

Sven Mikser is also an incumbent MEP.

"In the Reform Party's case, the second seat could almost equally likely go to either Hanno Pevkur or to Marko Mihkelson. Similarly, there is significant competitive moment between Urmas Reinsalu and Jüri Ratas within Isamaa, although Reinsalu is currently ahead of Ratas so far as support figures go," the expert went on.

According to Mölder, other parties such as even Eesti 200, contesting its second European elections, as well as Parempoolsed and the Greens, do not have a significant chance of securing a single mandate.

"Eesti 200 is unlikely to make it to Europe this time," Mölder said.

A graph showing the percentage of support for the major candidates according to the Norstat poll is below.

Norstat: Survey conducted prior to some parties finalizing their election lists

In predicting the possible outcomes of the European Parliament elections through an online survey, the Institute for Social Research noted two factors that could bias the survey results.

First, respondents significantly overestimate their potential election participation.

For this reason, to more accurately assess participation and adjust the results accordingly, the study used an electoral activity index created based on the Eurobarometer and other surveys.

This calibration of voter activity tends to benefit the Reform Party most in the final results, while the Center Party loses out the most.

For other parties, using this methodology did not bring any major differences in results, however.

Second, surveys conducted solely online can be somewhat biased toward certain parties. As a result, the general support percentages for the parties have been adjusted above, based on Norstat's party ratings, which are largely conducted via telephone surveys.

This type of recalibration was tested in the context of the 2023 parliamentary elections, where it reduced candidate-level margins of error by about 10 percent, the institute reported.

Also, the April survey was conducted before all party lists had been finalized. This means there are minor discrepancies in the lists included in the survey with regard to Center, Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed, ie. the parties who had not announced their lists by that time, compared with those lists ultimately confirmed by the parties.

Eesti 200's provisional list used in the survey had two names on it who did not make the final cut, and so two names were missed out who were on the official list.

For the Center Party and Parempoolsed, the difference is even greater – three candidates each, or a third of the total nine candidates permitted.

Significant names missing included former minister Janek Mäggi, Center MP Andrei Korobeinik, and former MEP Indrek Tarand.

Norstat conducted the above poll April 5 to 15 online and quizzed Estonian citizens aged 18 and older. EU citizens resident in Estonia are also eligible to vote at the European Parliament elections on June 9.

A total of 3,500 respondents were polled.

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