EP election survey: Reform, SDE to win two seats each

Reform and the Social Democrats (SDE) are both forecast to pick up two mandates at the European Parliament elections in June, a new poll by Kantar Emor and commissioned by ERR shows.
SDE's candidate Marina Kaljurand is the most popular candidate, similar to the last election in 2019, and is 14.4 percent of respondents' top choice. Last month, she received 13.9 percent support.
Former foreign minister Urmas Paet (Reform) is the second most popular candidate with 11.6 percent. After MEP and former Prime Minister Andrus Ansip withdrew, his supporters backed Paet, giving him a boost from 6.4 percent in March.
EKRE's Jaak Madison places third with 10.3 percent. The party's leading candidate ranked first on its list, Martin Helme is outside the top 10 most popular candidates on 2.3 percent.
Former mayor of Tallinn and Chairman of the Center Party Mihhail Kõlvart is the fourth most popular with 8.4 percent. This is twice as high as the party's current MEP Jana Toom (4.1 percent). Kõlvart has already said he will give up his place if he is elected.
Toom's support has fallen from 6 percent in March, while Kõlvart's rose from 5.5 percent. This may be connected to Kõlvart losing a vote of no confidence and being ousted as mayor, as it could have mobilized Russian-speaking voters behind him.
Both are mostly supported by non-Estonian voters, as support among Estonian respondents is less than 1 percent for Kõlvart and Toom.
Isamaa's Riho Terras, former head of the defense forces, is fifth with 8.1 percent (6.7 percent in March). His support is now almost as big as Urmas Reinsalu's (4.2 percent) and Jüri Ratas' (4.1 percent) combined.
Defense minister and Reform candidate Hanno Pevkur and defense expert Rainer Saks (Parempoolsed) fill out the top 10.
Eesti 200's most popular candidates Kalev Stoicescu (2.0 percent ), Kristina Kallas (1.2 percent) and Margus Tsahkna (1.1 percent) are all outside the top 10.
SDE's concern: Will young people vote?
SDE is likely to be the most popular party with an estimated 20 percent due to Marina Kaljurand. This is 1.4 percentage points lower than in March.
However, the party is the first choice among almost 30 percent of young voters – 16-24 age group – who, historically, are known to have a low turnout. Among over 65s, who have a high turnout, her support is 15.5 percent.
Reform is the second most popular party (18.8 percent), followed by Isamaa (16.8 percent).
Reform has not lost support after Ansip's withdrawal as votes were transferred to Paet, and the announcement of IT expert Luukas Kristjan Ilves as a candidate has brought another 2.3 percent support.
The Center Party and EKRE are both on 13.8 percent. EKRE's support dropped by 15.4 percent in March, but Center's stayed the same.
Parempoolsed follows with 6 percent, while Eesti 200's dropped from 5.6 percent to 4.7 percent. Neither party would win a seat, which at the last election required at least 10 percent support.
The Greens, which has only one candidate so far Evelyn Sepp, received 1.5 percent support.
Possible mandate distribution: 2+2+1+1+1
Kantar Emor's research expert Aivar Voog also evaluated the possible distribution of seats.
He believes SDE will win two for Kaljurand and, most likely, former minister of foreign affairs and sitting MEP Sven Mikser.
Reform is also on track to win two mandates, one for Urmas Pae and the second for Hanno Pevkur. However, if Pevkur decides to continue as minister of defense and give up his place, Luukas Kristjan Ilves has the highest chance of taking hs place.
Polling shows Isamaa will lose one of its two mandates. Riho Terras is likely to continue, but Reinsalu or Ratas would be in with a chance if it can hold its second seat.
Center and EKRE are expected to get one made each.
The European Parliament elections take place from June 3–9, 2024.
Kantar Emor surveyed 1,484 citizens of voting age across Estonia both online and by phone between April 9-17. The margin of error is ± 2.3 percent.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Helen Wright
Source: Kantar Emor