Ratings: Reform Party overtakes EKRE
![Prime Minister Kaja Kallas addressing a Reform Party congress.](https://i.err.ee/smartcrop?type=optimize&width=1472&aspectratio=16%3A10&url=https%3A%2F%2Fs.err.ee%2Fphoto%2Fcrop%2F2024%2F04%2F17%2F2359743hd7d1.jpg)
The performance of the current Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition is rated as "poor" by two-thirds of respondents to a recent survey. At the same time, the Reform Party has slightly pulled ahead of the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), according to the same survey.
The poll, conducted by Norstat Eesti on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), also found that the three coalition parties combined rated at 38.1 percent, compared with 56.3 percent for the three opposition parties: Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Center Party.
By party, Isamaa polled at 27.7 percent, meaning it continues to be most-supported of all six parties represented at the Riigikogu. Reform came second at 18.4 percent, with EKRE only fractionally behind (18 percent), according to Norstat.
Following this "top" three are the Social Democratic Party (SDE) at 14.7 percent, the Center Party, which polled at 10.6 percent, and Eesti 200 at 5 percent.
The latter figure is significant in that 5 percent is the threshold required to win seats in any electoral district under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation.
Norstat compiles its surveys on a weekly basis, aggregating them over the preceding four weeks. The above results represent no significant change in support for any party.
The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since Norstat began its weekly polls in early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).
The tables which follow sho the four-week aggregate figures (4 Nädala koondtulemused) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused) for each party (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Muu = Other parties).
Opinion on the coalition: 66 percent see its performance as poor
In addition to party preferences as outlined above, respondents to the Norstat survey were asked for their opinions on the performance of the coalition government and of the prime minister.
The latest found 29 percent of respondents stating the government is performing "very well" or "quite well," while 66 percent found the government is performing "quite poorly" or "very poorly".
The results for the prime minister alone were similar: Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they disapproved of Kaja Kallas' handling of the job, compared with 23 percent who said they approve of it.
Norstat polled just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (18 and over) between April 8 and May 6 to compile this survey.
Norstat claims an error margin in party ratings in direct proportion to the size of the party by support, so for instance the results for Isamaa as most-supported party come with a margin of error of +/-1.68 percent, compared with a margin of +/-0.82 percent for Eesti 200 as least-supported of the six Riigikogu parties.
The Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition has 60 seats at the 101-seat Riigikogu.
The main non-parliamentary parties are Parempoolsed and the Estonian Greens.
The next election in Estonia is next month, June 9, to the European Parliament. These elections tend to be more candidate-based rather than party-based, so far as voter preferences go.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mari Peegel