The votes are still there for the so-called grand coalition of the European Parliament as the EPP, Renew Europe and the European Socialists are looking at 409 seats in the 720-seat parliament. Does this mean there will not be a major shift in EU policy?

There are no major changes in store on the European level. Yes, the radical right has gained ground while the greens have clearly lost some, as have the liberals, but these changes are still relatively marginal. The balance of powers remains the same in the grand scheme of things.

Could change happen through member state politics, seeing as Olaf Scholtz' social democrats lost big in Germany, Emmanuel Macron's liberals lost in France, while right-wing forces did well in both major European countries? France is also heading into parliamentary elections.

There will be changes at the level of member states and they will affect European politics as a whole. The shifting balance in France will have a major effect on European politics, while for us, attitudes toward Ukraine remain the most polarizing issue.

We know that the people known as radicals in Italy are strong Ukraine backers. Support [for Ukraine] might shift in France, while the party that won the election in Germany is a solid Ukraine ally and will continue to support them. Germany's aid for Ukraine has been more than ten times what France has given, while I also do not see these ballparks changing too much.

We could say that the people of Europe provided a mandate for the green transition back in 2019. Whether they've been happy with how it has turned out is another matter. Still, the greens and other forces asked for and were given a mandate for the green transition. But what is the recent mandate for?

It's difficult to pinpoint the main polarizing topic in Europe, while it definitely was not the green transition. Or if it was, the message voters sent was that things need to be dialed back a bit. The green transition is a process. Estonia has pursued environmentally friendly policy since we regained our independence, and the process will not stop anywhere in Europe. However, all manner of bureaucratic demands have been taken to extremes in the meantime, and we will likely see them relaxed now. The voters have spoken.

Migration attitudes remain the polarizing issue for Western and Southern Europe, with this election clearly reflecting different approaches. The forces who believed that migration and asylum in Europe are human rights even without a good reason were clearly defeated, and those who wished to see migration checks were given a strong mandate. But I believe there was no single pan-European topic to split the electorate this time.

EU heads of government will convene in a week. It is likely that the European Commission president as well as other key positions will be decided at the meeting. You've attended one such post-election get-together in 2009. How do they work?

The debates have been ongoing before the informal Council meeting. These introductory debates largely determine who can count on member states' support, while they also see efforts to convince those still on the fence, which is usually a relatively painful process. Backers always want something in return, and the talks will likely be difficult this time, because while we are used to thinking than von der Leyen virtually has her second term, the social democrats made major gains at the election.

They matched their previous result based on what we know today, and even though the European People's Party (EPP) made headway, Renew Europe lost a lot of ground and it is quite difficult to drum up support for von der Leyen.

While the votes come together, a European Parliament coalition is very different from a national coalition. If a party falls short a vote in Estonia, journalists will immediately sniff out the one responsible.

In the European Parliament, it is considered an excellent result if just 10 percent of votes get lost so to speak. We cannot be sure of German conservatives all backing Ursula von der Leyen today, not to mention the social democrats who do not like von der Leyen looking for support from Meloni's Italy. There are more than a few divisive issues and the 10 percent majority might not be enough to get von der Leyen elected.

Next, they will be talking about the Council president, which is something where MEPs have no say. It also remains unclear who will become Council president. There is a lot of talk of Denmark's Mette Frederiksen, while it remains unclear why the Spanish, who have the most clout in the European Parliament, should settle for this important post going to tiny Denmark. Their Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has also been talked about in terms of the Council presidency.

No one has managed to successfully forecast the high representative. We have had three high representatives since the Lisbon Treaty, while neither Politico nor Euractive have managed to guess who might get the posting. Catherine Ashton became high representative even though no one really knew anything about her and the press did not speculate with her name. Then came Fredercia Mogherini, again following no speculation, and no one spoke about Joseph Borrell in the context of elections, and he became high representative too.

European coalitions are not permanent and are formed for the purposes of individual elections. All manners of issues see different coalitions formed based on member states' approaches and views.

Even though you said it has made little sense speculating as to who might become high representative, would you bet on Kaja Kallas being offered the job?

I would not dare to as those who have been considered for the role have always been overlooked. Generally speaking, larger member states have not surrendered it to smaller counterparts. They feel that since their embassies cover the entire world, they know how it works while smaller countries don't really have a clue.

There has been speculation regarding Belgium's Prime Minister Alexander de Croo who has already said he will resign. I consider him a strong candidate too, but it's usually the case that those whose names are discussed in the media do not end up landing the post. The high representative will be determined in the course of detailed talks.

Let us return to the von der Leyen question for a bit. You say that von der Leyen's second term is not a done deal, while EPP head Manfred Weber has already urged their recent partners to back her candidacy. But who might be the alternative?

I cannot say, while the talks will be very difficult. I believe Ursula von der Leyen is the best candidate. She has managed three crises. One was the coronavirus crisis – we might still be waiting for our vaccines without the EU's joint procurement. Then came the energy crisis and financial aid for Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen did an excellent job of coordinating these things which aren't really in the European Union's jurisdiction. Were it up to me, I would definitely reelect Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president.

She has been a good president, despite criticism from left and right, while we also cannot deny there is dissatisfaction among German conservatives, social democrats and democrats. Some are criticizing her for becoming Commission president outside the spitzenkandidat system. The post should have gone to Manfred Weber, while he was overlooked in favor of von der Leyen.

The social democrats clearly do not like von der Leyen considering cooperation with the Conservatives and Reformists or Meloni. The latter is not an issue for me as I always had strong backing from the group when serving as Commission vice president. Rather, I had to do a lot of convincing in my own ALDE faction where members were split before the talks and remained split after. /.../

Last time, von der Leyen was elected with a difference of just nine votes. It is borderline, and rather the majority has become even narrower since.

Let us return to Estonia and your home party. Do you think Estonia will still have a new prime minister and the Reform Party a new chair should Kaja Kallas not be offered the post of high representative?

I believe they will. I believe that Kaja Kallas will not scorn any Commission post she may be offered, and I also do not agree with those who rank offices as important and unimportant. It all depends on how seriously the person who gets the job takes it. Reform's policy in Estonia has run aground, which the voter just pointed out [at European elections].

While we might presume this loss in popularity is down to austerity, there has been no real austerity, only talk of cost-cutting. Those €175 million or €183 million hardly change the big picture, and real austerity is still to come. I do not believe Kaja Kallas or her administration are capable of handling it. Estonia needs a new government.

Who is your favorite [to replace Kallas] in the Reform Party?

We'll leave the decision up to Reform members, but as I've said on numerous occasions, I support Kristen Michal.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!