To borrow the words of Luminor economist Lenno Uusküla, waiting for economic growth to arrive in Estonia has been like waiting for Godot in Samuel Beckett's famous play. Waiting forever without really knowing who might come, from where and how exactly.

The extended slump has driven home the message that what has brought us here can take us no further. Not just in Estonia but other European and Nordic states that are stuck in the past and where people became complacent during good times and stopped thinking about tomorrow.

Congratulating oneself for past victories instead of concentrating on the future is a fast track to decline. For example, our shining city on a hill from a few decades ago, Nokia, has all but disappeared from the global arena, with just a fraction of its former glory remaining. Nokia's value has dropped from $150 billion to $21 billion. Elcoteq, a guarantor of Nokia's global growth and its best mobile technology partner, Estonia's largest exporter in the early 2000s, similarly went bankrupt in 2011.

While the Skype success story is still proudly mentioned in Estonia, and with good reason, this may leave the impression that the unforgettable global triumph happened just last month or year. In truth, it has been over 20 years since Skype was launched.

Skype was created by the so-called Tiger Leap generation. The 1996 education transition by Toomas Hendrik Ilves and Jaak Aaviksoo equipped all Estonian schools with computers and internet access and concentrated on improving the level of IT education. This historic decision directly reflected in the economic environment and growth of the decades that followed, creating fertile soil for a startup and e-governance boom the fruits of which we enjoy to this day.

Unfortunately, the success story rather undeservedly overshadowed the fate and reputation of Estonian industry. In a situation where all bets and attention were on the IT sector, it also pulled away the resources and educated labor. Therefore, it is little wonder that a study commissioned by the Estonian Employers' Confederation and carried out by the Anthropology Center last autumn paints a desolate picture: "We want the best, smartest, greenest and an economically sustainable country, while our industry is kept from being its locomotive."

The study clearly showed the industrial sector's low priority in society, with even leading people in the sector unable to name success stories and examples, anthropologist Keiu Telve wrote (link in Estonian).

At the same time, it is clear, more so after several years of recession, that growth in Estonia depends directly on export and the latter in turn on the competitiveness of the industrial sector. A smart, modern and globally competitive industry equally directly depends on our education system's ability to train young talents with applied skills and leadership qualities. Estonian industry and business need their own "founder's generation" and it can only come from today's school system.

The state and society's ability to concentrate on developing vocational education is not the basis just for the coming decades' growth but also the prospects of state finances. As recently pointed out by Estonian Employers' Confederation head Arto Aas, it is often overlooked in public debates that more than 80 percent of state budget revenue comes from salary and consumption taxes which in turn depend on companies' ability to pay wages.

Recent weeks have brought signals of careful optimism in the Estonian economy. Banks report that businesses have started dusting off investment plans and the Bank of Estonia forecasts growth to return later this year – naturally pulled along by export recovering.

It is high time to make decisions not just to exit the crisis but to ensure long-term growth also in the future. The Estonian Employers Confederation has proposed an economic agreement between companies and the government called "Ambition is Necessary," while it was treated to a lukewarm reception at best by the decision-makers. Minister of Economic Affairs Tiit Riisalo's (Eesti 200) growth plan that aimed to double the size of the Estonian economy by 2035 also failed to spark major interest.

As a rector I would bring in another crucial factor – it is high time to focus on education and especially vocational education and take the next developmental leap there. Education needs a fresh vision both in terms of private and public sector applications, both in vocational and academic higher education. Teaching mathematics in basic and high school deserves special attention – if nearly half of high school students pick the narrow mathematics exam and the average score is 30 percent, universities simply won't have enough students with a necessary level of preparation.

For a new developmental leap in economy we primarily need technical specialists and entrepreneurs. The 2023-2031 OSKA forecast suggest labor need will be greater than the generation entering the labor market today can cover. The shortage is forecast to be greatest in specialties that require higher education. In order to maintain our competitive ability, we need to ensure as a state that experienced foreign professors are welcome at our universities and that their doors stay open to foreign students. By tying students who have graduated from university in Estonia to business, we support internationalization and improve Estonian companies' export capacity.

As a former industry executive, I recommend being open to major foreign businesses, not just local startups. For example, direct investments by international companies contributed 114 percent of the country's GDP to the Belgian economy in 2002-2007.

The same study points out that international corporations make up just 2 percent of all companies active in Belgium, while those 2 percent created 99 percent of new jobs.

I also find that we need to see beyond the current military focus and agree on priorities and plans for better higher education and R&D funding and modernization of teaching. Estonia cannot ensure the necessary defensive capacity, not to mention a strong economy, without smart and well-trained specialists.

It all starts with political will and thinking ahead longer than a month or two. Unfortunately, things are presently not great in terms of political leadership quality, and neither the education system nor entrepreneurs feel the government has any future vision, not to mention plans to execute it. Rain Lõhmus recently said that if LHV [bank] acted like the government, LHV would be bankrupt. Estonia has had recession for nine consecutive quarters, while it has doubled its public debt in the past years – this cannot continue.

Development and economic growth do not just happen – they require preparation, long-term plans and decisions. Now that the recession is showing signs of abatement, the time has come to prepare for growth. Estonia needs a new leap in development.

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