The future of Estonia's energy system is under constant pressure due to climate change and energy market price fluctuations. Challenges include reducing dependence on fossil fuels, increasing energy security and minimizing the environmental impact of energy production, write Gea Kangilaski and Hedi Konrad.

While the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is inevitable in the context of climate goals, which path is the most effective?

Researchers from the University of Tartu interviewed 130 experts from various fields as part of a large transition project to assess the necessity and feasibility of different interventions. The study, based on the Delphi method, involved contributions from engineers, entrepreneurs, officials, municipal leaders, cultural anthropologists and civic activists. Their task was to evaluate and rank various interventions in science, economics, energy policy, culture and civil society.

The study, published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science, found that although experts agree on the necessity of transitioning to renewable energy, there is some skepticism about whether the change can be implemented systematically and timely. For example, there is no clear vision or agreement on the future energy system. Experts expressed concerns about the maturity of technological innovations and their local implementation possibilities. Additionally, many believed there is insufficient political readiness for the changes.

Instead of radical ideas and innovative technologies, experts tended to support proven solutions. For instance, they expressed deep doubts about the feasibility of carbon capture technology, its high cost and economic viability. There were also those who questioned the prudence of adopting nuclear energy.

The majority of experts believed that the future energy production portfolio should mainly include renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydrogen, biofuels and geothermal energy. In some cases, they saw a place for fossil fuels but considered them necessary only in a supporting role during the so-called transition years. Opinions on nuclear energy were clearly divided: some saw it as the future for Estonia, while others deemed it a risky and overly expensive investment.

Social and cultural

In addition to technological innovations, experts emphasized the importance of balancing social and cultural changes. They believe that the transition process should involve a broader range of stakeholders, from policymakers and entrepreneurs to civil society and local residents.

Margit Keller, an associate professor of social communication at the University of Tartu and co-author of the study, noted that the future of Estonia's socio-technical energy system is directly linked to the future of Ida-Viru County.

"The process of a just transition has begun, but it will not be completed in five years. The hope that only technological and economic levers will solve deep social and cultural problems is too narrow. A diverse array of creative policy-making, social dialogue and interventions is necessary to implement such extensive changes," Keller explained.

Sermons for citizens and carrots for entrepreneurs

Regarding solutions, experts preferred awareness-raising measures, which they termed "soft interventions" or the "carrot approach." They believe these levers help define common goals and facilitate citizen acceptance of changes. Awareness-raising was considered a cheap and simple measure, despite the fact that citizen resistance to innovative solutions has been relatively high so far.

On the other hand, prohibitive measures, or "stick-type" interventions, did not receive much support. Experts feared their destabilizing effects and citizen opposition. Some experts even considered stricter state regulations to be laughable, comparing them to an infringement on business freedom akin to communism.

According to the experts, supporting entrepreneurship primarily requires "carrot-type" measures. For instance, they suggested supporting companies' development investments aimed at making production more energy-efficient and less dependent on oil shale energy. Additionally, they deemed it necessary to attract major investors to the Ida-Viru region.

Subsistence and just transition

Even though the energy transition will bring extensive changes, the experts involved in the study did not consider livelihood justice sufficiently important. According to them, while the energy transition's impact on Ida-Viru's way of life may be significant, they did not deem the payment of pensions and benefits to oil shale industry workers who lose their jobs as sufficiently important. Instead, they believe that the transition should focus on addressing the lack of political will and dialogue.

In conclusion, the success of Estonia's green transition depends on whether society can find a balance between technological solutions and social justice. The study's results indicate the need to involve a broader range of stakeholders and consider their opinions to achieve a sustainable and inclusive energy system.

The study was conducted before the onset of the energy crisis and the war. Nevertheless, according to the authors, the results show that Estonia's energy policy decisions and development plans are moving in the expected direction. To account for recent changes, researchers suggest it would be appropriate to conduct a follow-up study.

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