A study from June concluded that residents of Ida-Viru County are skeptical of the green transition, and that its benefits should be better explained to the locals. The study was carried out by the National Defense and Security Center of Knowledge, with support from a Swiss NGO.

Explaining the merits of the green transition is undoubtedly important. But whether such efforts are fruitful depends mainly on two things. Whether those doing the explaining understand the topic in the first place, and whether change can improve the lives of local people. Whereas it is necessary to be honest and specific, and to avoid making claims removed from reality lest efforts come to nothing because what people see and what they're told simply doesn't match.

Reading the headline "Climate analysis author: Ida-Viru County in for a boom instead of a disaster" on ERR, I initially thought it a satirical piece. It turned out to be a news story on the effects analysis of Estonia's incoming climate law, in which analyst Mihkel Laan claims that dropping oil shale will not decimate Ida-Viru County, employment levels will not fall, companies will keep their revenue etc.

It is a matter of taste what we refer to as a disaster versus just degeneration. The expert may be right in that things cannot get much worse than they are, as oil shale mining volumes have fallen by many times, oil shale energy generation has all but ceased and thousands of jobs have been lost. Unemployment is at 12.7 percent in Ida-Viru County, highest at the beginning of July for the last four years. Local governments have lost tax revenue and are cutting budgets.

But even the people still employed by oil shale companies, who are among the biggest taxpayers in the region, have no certainty looking to the future as the government cannot provide a clear answer in terms of how much longer turning oil shale into shale oil will be permitted. As suggested by recent experience, you never know when a minister might decide not to greenlight a substation for a new mine all the other permits for which have been secured well in advance.

Or when a small group of activists might succeed in convincing a court to halt the construction of an oil plant with all necessary permits, on which hundreds of millions of euros have been spent and which would secure jobs, in addition to the factory workers, for hundreds of miners.

The Estonian Greens received exactly zero votes in Narva-Jõesuu − the local government that hosts Eesti Energia's oil and power plants − at the recent European Parliament elections. This shows that their ideas and politicians have absolutely no support among locals. But this "minor aspect" means nothing to protesters in Tallinn or Tartu.

In June, relatively little attention was paid to a recent report by the European Environment Agency, which confirmed that Estonia has met the national emission reduction targets for air pollutants set for 2020-2029, compared to 2022 levels. The country is also on track to meet the goals set for 2030 for most pollutants. However, as the classics say, there is always room for fine-tuning...

Estonia has for years made good progress on the part of the green transition that concerns reducing emissions and fossil fuel use. The price – considerable socioeconomic setbacks in Ida-Viru County. These effects are not just local, because the lion's share of taxes and environmental fees from the oil shale industry in Ida-Viru County have landed in state budgets. There is considerably less of that money today.

Pierre Wunsch, president of the National Bank of Belgium, turned to politicians this February, urging them not to make people believe that the green transition will create positive opportunities, which can make the economy grow and create millions of high-paying jobs. Politicians in Estonia could also head into elections with slogans more in line with the recent effects of the green transition, such as "No to growth!" and see how many votes that'll yield. After all, this yet-to-be-made promise has largely been kept in recent years. The fact that Estonia has become a net energy importer instead of an exporter has played a part.

The talk of at least the past five years of how €340 million from the Just Transition Fund will alleviate all of Ida-Viru County's pains from leaving oil shale in the ground sounds good. But for as long as there are no tangible results, it is reminiscent of occupation era campaigns where political agitators told fairy tales of the arrival of communism that was always just around the corner.

There is no doubt that a lot of nice things will be done in Ida-Viru County courtesy of the Just Transition Fund. Modern factories and a few hotels will be erected, while local colleges will find their footing again after years of underfunding. But there is a major problem. Namely that this socioeconomic "ambulance" takes years to arrive at the scene and is not carrying enough life-saving medicine for everyone.

It would benefit Ida-Viru County if officials switched processing the Just Transition Fund projects into overdrive. So that decisions that can be made in a matter of weeks wouldn't be dragged out for months or require a mountain of paperwork. At the same time, and as long as the new economy is still gearing up, new bright ideas of how to kill off still active companies with new regulations and taxes should be avoided.

The green transition should make people happy, not angry, which is something politicians in talks for a new coalition in Estonia would do well to keep in mind.

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