"In 1990, one of the most fundamental tenets was. 'We're poor, but we endure,' and 'We've survived all kinds of hardships,'" said Alar Kilp, lecturer in comparative politics at the University of Tartu (TÜ). In other words, at the time, Estonia's story leaned more on the past. By now, he noted, Estonia has a state and a people  become much more self-confident.

"Consider, for instance, how the world views our stance on the mess of relations between Israel, Palestine and the U.S.," he pointed out.

In a public lecture in Tallinn a few weeks ago, Kilp spoke about the "Estonian story" from 1990-2020. He examined who were the ones considered to be "the others" during the early years of Estonia's regained independence – with whom they compared or contrasted themselves. He also discussed what conclusions could be drawn as a result regarding today's "others."

For this, Kilp and his colleagues analyzed the most important Estonian political speeches, films, books and opinion pieces from the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010 and 2020.

"The aim is to capture through these a cross-section of society," he explained. "How do people talk? What do they think and feel?"

No need to trumpet every win anymore

According to the TÜ lecturer, analyses of public sources, primarily including cultural materials such as movies, books, text books, opinions and reader letters, to map out national identity have been conducted in major countries for decades.

In the U.K., for example, a James Bond film and an Agatha Christie novel were among works included in a list of the most discussed works since 1950.

"You might think, 'Really? Do I learn something about the British national identity by watching a James Bond movie?'" he acknowledged. But even in such films, you can find references to certain values – such as how the British perceive themselves as one of the world's great powers.

Estonia's selection, meanwhile, includes popular books like "Old Barny" ("Rehepapp") and "Memoirs of Ivan Orav," both by Andrus Kivirähk, and Tõnu Õnnepalu's "Border State." And while 1995 was a quiet year for movies in Estonia, later years saw the inclusion of major films like "Names in Marble" ("Nimed marmortahvlil") and "Truth and Justice."

Two political speeches were likewise included from each year studied. Chosen for 1990, for example, were Edgar Savisaar's speech on forming a government, and Tunne Kelam's speech before the Congress of Estonia. Later years included several Independence Day speeches by various presidents.

In identifying so-called "Estonian stories" in the material, Kilp conceptually distinguished between the stories of the elite and of the masses. "By 'elite narrative,' I mean what political leaders say and what appears in opinion pieces in newspapers or in history books," he explained. Considered as more popular mass narratives, meanwhile, was the content of reader letters published in the media.

"In fact, everyday wisdom, common sense and widespread beliefs or reliance on them can be present in both," he pointed out.

Analyzing the content of these selected texts, he observed that Estonians have grown more self-confident over time.

In 1990, for example, hard times and the nation's humility were reflected in a speech by Edgar Savisaar, in which he stated, "...no one knows how far the East will go when it comes to us, or how far the West will."

"On one hand, there's a lot of hope and expectations here; on the other, fear," the lecturer highlighted. He recalled that in 1990, people would say, "Complaining won't help; we just have to keep up with the times... We survived [world wars and collective farms], and we'll continue to survive."

Now, based on presidential Independence Day speeches, at least, Kilp sees that Estonians no longer view themselves as small or poor.

"Up until 2020, some kind of success story was emphasized whenever possible – whether an Olympic victory, Skype, Arvo Pärt or someone else," he recalled.

Since 2021, this hasn't happened as much, possibly in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises. According to the TÜ lecturer, however, it could also be that Estonians as a nation have achieved a certain degree of self-confidence: "Success and achievements are the norm, and there's no need to trumpet every win anymore."

Likewise, Estonia has shifted from being a country needing assistance to having a seat at the table of world politics. Estonia is now more concerned with how the world views them in ligt of the war in Ukraine or the Israel-Palestine conflict.

"This means our identity-consciousness is much more in the moment," Kilp noted. "The more self-assured we are in relation to our current surroundings, the shorter our time perspective becomes."

According to him, this shift indicates that focusing on past hardships no longer propels Estonia forward. At the same time, by thinking less about the past, Estonia is also distancing itself from solidarity with Finno-Ugric peoples in Russia, for example.

Distinction between elite, the people fades at the Song Festival

As noted, Alar Kilp differentiated in his analysis between so-called elite and mass narratives. By 1995, he said, the political elite had distanced themselves from the Soviet era, and looked up to the West or Nordic countries as role models. The people, meanwhile, focused less on these themes, and more keenly experienced the hard and impoverished times.

"As a new phenomenon, people began to feel that their own status, or that of the group to which they belonged, had been reduced," he highlighted. For example, they compared wages and pensions under the Soviet system to those in the new free-market economy, and felt anxious over their decline in status.

"A society had formed in which former Communists were stigmatized, and the market economy wasn't questioned, but there was also a nostalgia, or mixed feelings, so to speak, toward the Soviet era," he explained. Among the people, one might hear statements like, "At least life existed in the countryside in Soviet times," or "We've always been a rural people."

According to Kilp, certain stories are elite stories, while others are those of the people.

"Have we always been a rural, forest, coastal, village or agricultural people? That's moreso a story of the people," he explained. Likewise belonging more to popular narratives are topics like making ends meet month to month, traditions as well as conservative values. "Among the people, Tallinn was already being distinguished from the rest of Estonia in 1990 and 1995 already: 'why are certain benefits being concentrated there?' At the time, Tallinn was also a somewhat different entity to which the people could contrast themselves."

At the same time, the university lecturer noted that events and rituals are important for both the elite and the people. For example, in Estonia, the people and the elite participate together in things like song festivals and commemorations of 1940s deportations, where they share a sense of unity.

"Perhaps what binds us together the most is not what we talk about, but our rituals: those spaces where it seems like we aren't doing much of anything," he suggested.

Looking to the future, Kilp said that the main question for Estonia, as for the rest of the world, is the survival of democracy. Estonia's history has seen divisions between the elite and the people as well as distrust toward politicians before.

"Distrust toward the government, certain political parties or politicians isn't in itself a crisis of democracy," he acknowledged. "But we have to watch for whether demand arises in society for fewer disputes and more order – i.e. a 'strong hand.'"

Even in the 1990s, he said, there were a few solitary voices in Estonia wishing for more power for figures like Estonian President Lennart Meri. However, the debate over direct presidential elections or more referenda has since then remained just that – a debate. According to Kilp, there hasn't been enough demand for it in Estonia.

"I believe that if a very bad scenario were to unfold, in which democratic regimes across Europe start falling and authoritarian revolutions start to occur, Estonia would be one of the last to follow," Kilp said. "At the moment, we don't see that happening."

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