Estonia's politicians keenly interested in Trump's plans, defense spending

Leading politicians from all six political parties represented at the Riigikogu have, despite their differences on other topics, agreed on the need to boost defense spending to 5 percent of GDP per year, as called for by new US President Donald Trump.
In a defense-themed debate held on Wednesday's "Esimene stuudio," the party representatives discussed Trump's possible plans, their impact on global politics, and put this in the context of Estonia's defense spending and security, amid evolving alliances and rising threats.
Estonia's defense spending debate
Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) said on Tuesday that Estonia should aim for a defense spending level of 5 percent of GDP.
Raimond Kaljulaid (SDE), who sits on the Riigikogu's defense committee, said that so far as his party is concerned, the move toward a goal of that kind was totally expected.
Isamaa MP and former foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu argued that the issue comes down not to one of percentages, but of acquiring critical defense capabilities come what may.
Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) honorary chair and former interior minister Mart Helme argued too that the issue is not about a fixed percentage of GDP, but whether sufficient funds are allocated to fill defense gaps. He expressed skepticism that critical capabilities could be secured quickly, however.
Riigikogu National Defense Committee chair Kalev Stoicescu (Eesti 200) remarked that discussions in and with NATO neighbors Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland about boosting defense budgets made it clear that Estonia would soon follow suit.
The MP noted that while the prime minister's statement was welcome in terms of its timing, the specifics on the timing and funding of meeting the actual 5-percent benchmark remain a matter for coalition negotiations.
Marko Mihkelson (Reform), chair of the Riigikogu's Foreign Affairs Committee, said the debate over the 5 percent figure is a valid one, adding that coalition parties can likely come to an agreement.

However, Mihkelson highlighted that the more significant challenge remains the actions of some of the larger allies.
Also appearing on the show was Mihhail Kõlvart, a former mayor of Tallinn and current Center Party chair, who pointed out that if the Estonian economy contracts in the coming years, 5 percent of GDP could result in lower spending on defense in absolute terms.
He also argued that the contributions of major NATO allies are rather more critical, as Estonia's defense spending would be insufficient even if it were to be raised to 10 percent of GDP, without the major allies' support.
Trump's second term and its global impact
The recent re-entry into office of Donald Trump was unsurprisingly on the table during the "Esimene stuudio" broadcast.
Mihkelson suggested that Trump's goal is to shake up the current world order, to strengthen the U.S.' position in global politics.
Reinsalu found that Trump's primary aim is to pressure Russia in a way the collective western countries have failed to do in recent years, for example, by altering U.S. energy policies in a way which will undercut Russia's oil and gas revenues, its main earners.
Kaljulaid reiterated an earlier statement he had made that the special relationship between the U.S. and Europe would evaporate under Trump, and Europe will come to be seen by the Trump administration as one region among several worldwide.
Helme said that Trump's team understands that the U.S. has overextended itself globally, taking on too much, meaning now is the time to pull back – which will affect all of Europe.
Stoicescu remarked that despite the U.S.' withdrawal into a more inward-looking approach, Estonia must adapt to that and maintain strong relations with its strongest ally.
Meanwhile, Kõlvart said Trump had made it clear that the U.S.-Europe relations "honeymoon period" is over, ushering in an era of more hard-headed and pragmatic considerations.

Russia, Ukraine, and US policy
Mihkelson noted that Trump's somewhat surprising threats of new sanctions on Russia suggest secret negotiations took place between Trump's team and the Russians.
Reinsalu stressed that Europe has a clear responsibility to ensure decisions on Ukraine's future are not made solely by the U.S. and Russia, however.
Stoicescu pointed out that reports indicate Trump's team and Russian officials had met, but that these negotiations had failed. This suggests Vladimir Putin is unwilling to make concessions and is waiting to see how serious Trump is on his threats.
Kaljulaid argued Ukraine is not a priority for Trump in any case, with his focus being on China and on dismantling the growing Russia-China alliance.
Kõlvart argued that this posited Russia-China strategic alliance is not one of equals, as China has more options and a longer-term plan. He noted that China's pragmatism could just as easily lead it to align with the U.S., if doing so suits Beijing's interests.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
Source: 'Esimene stuudio,' interviewers Liisu Lass and Andres Kuusk.